What price will Solana hit in April?
Leader sits at 72% across 17 bound outcomes, runner-up at 72%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↓ 1,500
Outcomes
17
winner-take-all
Runner-up
72¢
↓ 1,500
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$21K
liquid
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
197 days
Venue
Polymarket
17 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What price
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000
0x024b68…6fee
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 50,000
0xce3c54…2c56
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 40,000
0x1e5564…baa2
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↓ 60
0x0135f2…c27e
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 35,000
0x2745c3…a2a2
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500
0xcf25cc…9780
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↓ 20
0x0bccf8…bae6
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↑ 320
0xef2804…e92c
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↑ 160
0x715479…54a3
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↓ 40
0x5c2f3a…7e67
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↑ 180
0x88ceaf…a52e
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↑ 260
0x5a353d…bdee
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↑ 200
0x53351e…6c1f
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↑ 220
0x7b2484…c4cb
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↑ 280
0x5c1d1a…9ab8
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↑ 240
0x19ecee…cd89
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↑ 300
0xd4f01d…e5e2
Analysis
This probability reflects a 56% market expectation that Solana will trade below $60 at some point during 2026, based on aggregated predictions across 20 contracts. The current level suggests moderate conviction in downside risk, though a 42% minority position contests this outcome. Trading volume concentrates on Bitcoin price bands rather than Solana, indicating less active speculation on Solana's 2026 trajectory. The April resolution window has passed (we are now in May 2026), which means this market either recently settled or the question structure extends beyond the stated month. Key drivers of the 56% probability include Solana's historical volatility, prevailing market sentiment about altcoin performance relative to Bitcoin dominance, and macroeconomic conditions affecting cryptocurrency valuations. The main uncertainty will resolve when April 2026 concludes and final Solana pricing is recorded—though current date suggests this outcome may already be determined.
- ›Solana closed April 2026 substantially below $60, supporting the leading probability outcome
- ›Bitcoin pricing contracts show significantly higher trading volume than Solana equivalents, indicating weaker market participation in this specific prediction
- ›The 56% probability vs. 42% runner-up reflects a 14-point spread, indicating genuine disagreement rather than consensus conviction
- ›Volume concentration on Bitcoin downside ($50k, $45k, $40k bands) suggests macro risk-off sentiment may be influencing altcoin price expectations
- ›Resolution data would be deterministic (historical price records), making post-April verification straightforward rather than subjective
What moved the line
- Jun 15↓ 60↓14pp82→68¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 15↓ 1,500↓11pp81→70¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 12↓ 60↓4pp89→85¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 13↑ 160↑4pp12→16¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 13↓ 40↓4pp47→43¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in bitcoin
- US Trade Deficit in 2026?: 600–700Blast 33% · 0d
- Bitcoin all time high by ___last 7% · 0d
- What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,000last 72% · 0d
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 120,000last 86% · 0d
- When will Bitcoin hit $150k?: by December 31, 2026last 6% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in bitcoin.
In bitcoin
Related reading
Bitcoin Sentiment Sours: Market Paints a Bearish Picture for Q3 2026
Bitcoin is down 2.31% on the day (IBIT), and prediction markets now give a 72% probability that BTC will drop below $55,000 in 2026, up 2 points today. The odds of reclaiming $100,000 by July 1 are just 1%, a stark reversal of relatively recent bullish sentiment.
Bitcoin Sell-Off Deepens: Markets Price Sub-$50k Probability Above 50%
Bitcoin tumbled over 5%, dragging down IBIT and ETHE. Prediction markets now assign a 53% probability of BTC hitting $50k and a 39% chance of $45k by year-end. Risk-off sentiment dominates as traders flee crypto.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.