Chapecoense at Fluminense
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 35% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
35%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$835
19 contracts
Top contract
39¢
$515 · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 29% of their title tokens — “Paranaense at Vasco da Gama: Totals: Over” vs “Corinthians at Mirassol: Totals: Over”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Paranaense at Vasco da Gama: Totals: Over
Paranaense at Vasco da Gama: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY10VDGCAP-1
Paranaense at Vasco da Gama: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY10VDGCAP-4
Paranaense at Vasco da Gama: Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY10VDGCAP-3
Paranaense at Vasco da Gama: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY10VDGCAP-2
Cluster 2
Corinthians at Mirassol: Totals: Over
Corinthians at Mirassol: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY03MIRCOR-2
Corinthians at Mirassol: Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY03MIRCOR-3
Corinthians at Mirassol: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY03MIRCOR-1
Cluster 3
Vasco da Gama at Flamengo: Totals: Over
Vasco da Gama at Flamengo: Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY03FLAVDG-3
Vasco da Gama at Flamengo: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY03FLAVDG-2
Vasco da Gama at Flamengo: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY03FLAVDG-4
Cluster 4
Bragantino at Chapecoense: Totals: Over
Bragantino at Chapecoense: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY03CHARBB-2
Bragantino at Chapecoense: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY03CHARBB-4
Bragantino at Chapecoense: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY03CHARBB-1
Cluster 5
Flamengo at Gremio: Totals: Over
Flamengo at Gremio: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY10GPAFLA-1
Flamengo at Gremio: Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY10GPAFLA-3
Flamengo at Gremio: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY10GPAFLA-2
Cluster 6
Fluminense at Internacional: Totals: Over
Cluster 7
Bahia at Sao Paulo: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
Bahia at Sao Paulo: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY03SPABAH-1
What moved the line
- Apr 28Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored↑36pp32→68¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored↑34pp15→49¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored↑26pp17→43¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored↑21pp6→27¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored↑17pp21→38¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.