Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Jeju SK FC
Leader sits at 39% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 33%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Bucheon FC 1995
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
33¢
Jeju SK FC
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$26
thin orderbook
Closes
May 5, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Jeju SK FC
Analysis
This 30% probability reflects market expectations that Bucheon FC 1995 will win an upcoming match against Jeju SK FC. The probability is informed by relatively consistent pricing across two venues (Kalshi and Polymarket) with modest trading volume. Key drivers include each team's current form, head-to-head history, and home-field advantage. The market has also priced in expectations around goal totals, with contracts on over/under 2.5 goals showing stronger confidence (39¢) compared to higher-scoring scenarios. Resolution will occur following the match completion, when the final result determines whether Bucheon FC 1995 secures a win. The moderate probability suggests neither team is heavily favored, reflecting competitive balance or genuine uncertainty about matchup outcomes.
- ›Trading volume is relatively low across both venues ($26-50 in 24h volume on main contracts), suggesting limited market certainty or liquidity rather than high conviction around the 30% level
- ›Over/under 2.5 goals contract prices at 39¢ indicate markets expect a moderately low-scoring match, which could correlate with defensive strength or team setup
- ›Jeju SK FC heavy underdog pricing at home (-1.5 line at 14¢) suggests asymmetric expectations about head-to-head dynamics or recent performance
- ›Probability has held steady at 30% across both major venues with identical readings, indicating potential convergence rather than ongoing arbitrage or disagreement
- ›Match resolution depends entirely on final score determination, with no interim updates or partial outcomes affecting probability between now and completion
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.