Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above ___ end of April?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 38% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
38%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$41K
20 contracts
Top contract
70¢
$8K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 1
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 107 USD/Bbl on May 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $107
KXBRENTD-26MAY0417-T107
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 110 USD/Bbl on May 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $110
KXBRENTD-26MAY0417-T110
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 107.50 USD/Bbl on May 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $107.50
KXBRENTD-26MAY0417-T107.50
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 108 USD/Bbl on May 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $108
KXBRENTD-26MAY0417-T108
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 110.99 USD/Bbl on May 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $110.99
KXBRENTW-26MAY0817-T110.99
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 108.99 USD/Bbl on May 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $108.99
KXBRENTW-26MAY0817-T108.99
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 112 USD/Bbl on May 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $112
KXBRENTD-26MAY0417-T112
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 112.99 USD/Bbl on May 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $112.99
KXBRENTW-26MAY0817-T112.99
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 114 USD/Bbl on May 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $114
KXBRENTD-26MAY0417-T114
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 118.99 USD/Bbl on May 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $118.99
KXBRENTW-26MAY0817-T118.99
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 112.50 USD/Bbl on May 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $112.50
KXBRENTD-26MAY0417-T112.50
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 110.50 USD/Bbl on May 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $110.50
KXBRENTD-26MAY0417-T110.50
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 109.50 USD/Bbl on May 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $109.50
KXBRENTD-26MAY0417-T109.50
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 116 USD/Bbl on May 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $116
KXBRENTD-26MAY0417-T116
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 115 USD/Bbl on May 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $115
KXBRENTD-26MAY0417-T115
Cluster 2
Will the copper close price be above 5.9
Cluster 3
Will the gold close price be above
Cluster 4
will the silver close price be above 76.50 usd/t.oz on may 04, 2026 at 5:00 pm edt
What moved the line
- May 3above $76.50↑24pp22→46¢ · Kalshi
- May 2above $112.99↑13pp24→37¢ · Kalshi
- May 2above $118.99↑10pp11→21¢ · Kalshi
- May 2above $108.99↑9pp39→48¢ · Kalshi
- May 2above $76.50↓8pp30→22¢ · Kalshi
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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