CA Barracas Central vs. Audax CS Italiano - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 19 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
32%
19 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5
19 contracts
Closes
May 7, 2026
3 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 27% of their title tokens — “CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad - More Markets” vs “Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle - More Markets”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad - More Markets
CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad - More Markets: Club Libertad (-1.5)
0x0901f9…c3a4
CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x80fa15…067d
CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xeae9bb…d98d
CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x5a58b8…8891
CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x8f0caa…5dd3
CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xb4dcaf…a97b
CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad - More Markets: CA Rosario Central (-1.5)
0x80433c…a6ec
CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad - More Markets: CA Rosario Central (-2.5)
0x178a18…e4f2
Cluster 2
Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle - More Markets
Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle - More Markets: Independiente del Valle (-2.5)
0xb49118…0138
Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x379684…337b
Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xdf2dc3…aa24
Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle - More Markets: Universidad Central de Venezuela FC (-2.5)
0x171d1b…8dec
Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle - More Markets: Independiente del Valle (-1.5)
0x402808…f801
Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x194275…ae7e
Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle - More Markets: Universidad Central de Venezuela FC (-1.5)
0x64bd66…b78d
Cluster 3
Audax CS Italiano vs. CR Vasco da Gama
Cluster 4
CA Barracas Central vs. Club Olimpia
What moved the line
- May 3Independiente del Valle (-1.5)↓6pp34→28¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Independiente del Valle (-2.5)↓5pp35→30¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Universidad Central de Venezuela FC (-1.5)↓5pp29→24¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Club Libertad (-1.5)↑4pp11→15¢ · Polymarket
- May 3CA Rosario Central (-2.5)↑4pp19→23¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.