CA Barracas Central vs. Club Olimpia
Leader sits at 34% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 34%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
CA Barracas Central
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
34¢
Club Olimpia
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 7, 2026
3 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
CA Barracas Central vs. Club Olimpia
Analysis
This probability reflects the estimated likelihood that CA Barracas Central will defeat Club Olimpia in an upcoming match. The 32% assessment suggests oddsmakers view Olimpia as the stronger side, though the gap between venues (Kalshi at 35%, Polymarket at 32%) indicates some disagreement on the precise odds. Key factors influencing this probability include team form and recent performance records, head-to-head historical matchups between these clubs, current squad composition and injury status, and home-field advantage considerations. The primary catalyst resolving this uncertainty is the scheduled match itself—once played, the outcome will definitively settle the contract. Until then, any shift in betting probability would likely reflect updated team news, lineup confirmations, or changes in broader market sentiment about either club's competitive strength.
- ›Recent win-loss records of both teams in their respective leagues or competitions
- ›Direct historical head-to-head results between CA Barracas Central and Club Olimpia
- ›Current injury status or roster changes for either club affecting match availability
- ›Whether the match is played at Barracas Central's or Olimpia's home venue
- ›Trading volume and position concentration across Kalshi and Polymarket contracts, which may indicate informed betting activity or reflect thinner liquidity
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 13 min ago.