CA Newell's Old Boys vs. Instituto AC Córdoba - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 40% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 30%, Polymarket at 41% — a 11pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
30%
3 contracts
Polymarket
41%
17 contracts
Cross-venue gap
11pp
wide divergence
24h move
+10pp
10h ago
24h volume
$1K
20 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
241 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 30¢ · Polymarket 41¢ · 11pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (30¢, 3 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (41¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
5 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK” vs “Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt (-2.5)
0x5283a2…dc97
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5)
0x879d11…150c
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK: Draw (FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK)
0x97e26b…6f2f
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK: Molde FK
0xa52956…22fa
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xbba59e…6533
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x935aef…c561
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK: FK Bodø/Glimt
0xe86516…675e
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: Molde FK (-2.5)
0x89b8dd…0d69
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x27b4e7…a7ed
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x85b3e4…0fa1
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: Molde FK (-1.5)
0x8e7ca6…3a88
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x9d9b18…ae7c
Cluster 2
Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026
Cluster 3
Velez Sarsfield vs Newell's Old Boys Winner
Velez Sarsfield vs Newell's Old Boys Winner?: Velez Sarsfield
KXARGPREMDIVGAME-26MAY04VELNOB-VEL
Velez Sarsfield vs Newell's Old Boys Winner?: Newell's Old Boys
KXARGPREMDIVGAME-26MAY04VELNOB-NOB
Velez Sarsfield vs Newell's Old Boys Winner?: Tie
KXARGPREMDIVGAME-26MAY04VELNOB-TIE
Cluster 4
Who will die in The Boys: Season 5
Who will die in The Boys: Season 5?: Soldier Boy
0x56e3a2…a0ab
Cluster 5
Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Instituto de Córdoba
Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Instituto de Córdoba
0x3d992a…e565
Analysis
This 30% probability indicates that Newell's Old Boys is expected to not win against Instituto AC Córdoba in an upcoming match. The current assessment reflects the relative strength disparity between the two Argentine clubs, with Instituto AC positioned as the likely favorite. Key factors that could shift this probability include recent team form, head-to-head historical performance, player injuries or absences, and home-field advantage. The resolution of this market depends on the match outcome, which will be determined once the scheduled fixture is played. Changes in the probability before kickoff would primarily reflect updated information about team conditions, betting market movement, or late-breaking news affecting either squad's composition or tactical approach.
- ›Newell's Old Boys' recent performance record in the Argentine league and their current position in the standings
- ›Instituto AC Córdoba's form and goal-scoring efficiency in recent matches
- ›Head-to-head historical results between the two clubs over the past 2-3 seasons
- ›Availability of key players for Newell's Old Boys, including injuries or suspensions affecting their starting lineup
- ›Home or away designation for the match, as venue typically influences win probability by 5-15 percentage points in Argentine football
What moved the line
- May 1Season 5?: Soldier Boy↑10pp33→43¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28Season 5?: Soldier Boy↑9pp30→39¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28Bitcoin↑9pp29→38¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 27Season 5?: Soldier Boy↑6pp24→30¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30Season 5?: Soldier Boy↓6pp39→33¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.