CA Newell's Old Boys vs. Instituto AC Córdoba - More Markets: CA Newell's Old Boys (-1.5)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 39% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 30%, Polymarket at 41% — a 11pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
30%
3 contracts
Polymarket
41%
17 contracts
Cross-venue gap
11pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
20 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
242 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 30¢ · Polymarket 41¢ · 11pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (30¢, 3 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (41¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
5 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK” vs “Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5)
0x879d11…150c
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt (-2.5)
0x5283a2…dc97
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xbba59e…6533
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK: Molde FK
0xa52956…22fa
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: Molde FK (-2.5)
0x89b8dd…0d69
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x85b3e4…0fa1
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK: FK Bodø/Glimt
0xe86516…675e
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x27b4e7…a7ed
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK: Draw (FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK)
0x97e26b…6f2f
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: Molde FK (-1.5)
0x8e7ca6…3a88
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x9d9b18…ae7c
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x935aef…c561
Cluster 2
Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026
Cluster 3
Velez Sarsfield vs Newell's Old Boys Winner
Velez Sarsfield vs Newell's Old Boys Winner?: Velez Sarsfield
KXARGPREMDIVGAME-26MAY04VELNOB-VEL
Velez Sarsfield vs Newell's Old Boys Winner?: Tie
KXARGPREMDIVGAME-26MAY04VELNOB-TIE
Velez Sarsfield vs Newell's Old Boys Winner?: Newell's Old Boys
KXARGPREMDIVGAME-26MAY04VELNOB-NOB
Cluster 4
Who will die in The Boys: Season 5
Who will die in The Boys: Season 5?: Soldier Boy
0x56e3a2…a0ab
Cluster 5
Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Instituto de Córdoba
Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Instituto de Córdoba
0x3d992a…e565
What moved the line
- May 1Season 5?: Soldier Boy↑10pp33→43¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28Season 5?: Soldier Boy↑9pp30→39¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28Bitcoin↑9pp29→38¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 27Season 5?: Soldier Boy↑6pp24→30¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30Season 5?: Soldier Boy↓6pp39→33¢ · Polymarket
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 23 min ago.