CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad
Leader sits at 66% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 23%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
CA Rosario Central
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
23¢
Draw (CA Rosario Central vs.
Spread
43pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 5, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad
Analysis
This represents the probability that CA Rosario Central will defeat Club Libertad in an upcoming match. The 31% aggregate probability reflects modest confidence in a Libertad victory, with notable disagreement between venues—Polymarket traders price Rosario's chances 6 percentage points higher than Kalshi traders do. The probability is driven by each team's recent form, head-to-head history, and current league standings. The match itself will be the definitive resolution event, making pre-game team news, injury reports, and lineup announcements key drivers of probability shifts in the days leading up to kickoff.
- ›Recent league performance and standings position of both CA Rosario Central and Club Libertad
- ›Historical head-to-head record and goal differential between these teams
- ›Reported injuries, suspensions, or roster changes for key players before match day
- ›The 6 percentage point gap between Polymarket (32%) and Kalshi (26%) suggests different trader bases or information access
- ›Relatively low trading volume on the Kalshi contract ($31 in 24h) indicates limited liquidity and potential pricing noise
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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