CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad - More Markets
Leader sits at 76% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 52%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
52¢
O/U 2.5
Spread
24pp
contested
24h volume
$689
thin orderbook
Closes
May 5, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad - More Markets
CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad - More Markets: CA Rosario Central (-1.5)
0x80433c…a6ec
CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x80fa15…067d
CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xeae9bb…d98d
CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x5a58b8…8891
CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x8f0caa…5dd3
CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xb4dcaf…a97b
CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad - More Markets: CA Rosario Central (-2.5)
0x178a18…e4f2
Analysis
This 31% probability reflects market expectation that CA Rosario Central will win by more than 2.5 goals against Club Libertad. The current pricing suggests Club Libertad is favored, with the market assigning roughly 3-to-1 odds against a dominant Rosario Central victory. The probability is driven primarily by recent form, head-to-head records, and home/away advantage between the Argentine and Paraguayan clubs. The match result will be the direct catalyst resolving this contract—the outcome depends on actual team performance on match day, including injuries, tactical adjustments, and in-game momentum. Low trading volume on most contracts ($0-306 in 24h) indicates limited market activity, which can affect price reliability and may leave inefficiencies unfilled.
- ›Trading volume concentrated in one contract (Club Libertad -2.5 at $306), with most other contracts showing zero volume in past 24 hours
- ›Market assigns roughly 14% to Club Libertad -2.5 outcome (6¢ price) versus 20% to Rosario Central -2.5 (20¢ price), showing asymmetric risk pricing
- ›Overall Rosario Central moneyline prices at 65¢, suggesting market leans toward Club Libertad in direct matchup
- ›Contract pricing spread suggests moderate uncertainty—no single outcome is overwhelmingly favored
- ›Match outcome depends on verifiable performance metrics: actual goals scored, final scoreline, and whether margin exceeds 2.5 goals
What moved the line
- May 3CA Rosario Central (-2.5)↑4pp19→23¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 8 h ago.