CD Oriente Petrolero vs. CD Real Tomayapo - More Markets: CD Real Tomayapo (-1.5)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 41% across 19 contracts. Kalshi at 58%, Polymarket at 36% — a 22pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
58%
4 contracts
Polymarket
36%
15 contracts
Cross-venue gap
22pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
19 contracts
Closes
May 2, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 58¢ · Polymarket 36¢ · 22pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (36¢, 15 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (58¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
7 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 9% of their title tokens — “Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC - More Markets” vs “will real gdp increase by more than”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC - More Markets
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x14b9f0…8346
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC - More Markets: Club Independiente Petrolero (-1.5)
0xc0f87e…3cf8
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC - More Markets: Caracas FC (-2.5)
0x757589…4a25
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xf89db8…aff8
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC - More Markets: Club Independiente Petrolero (-2.5)
0x378f7b…5bbb
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x3dd944…aba5
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC - More Markets: Caracas FC (-1.5)
0x3ac6cb…cb5b
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x2900cd…928a
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x2b4c20…150c
Cluster 2
will real gdp increase by more than
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.5% in Q2 2026?: Above 2.5%
KXGDP-26JUL30-T2.5
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.5% in Q2 2026?: Above 1.5%
KXGDP-26JUL30-T1.5
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.0% in Q2 2026?: Above 2.0%
KXGDP-26JUL30-T2.0
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.0% in Q2 2026?: Above 1.0%
KXGDP-26JUL30-T1.0
Cluster 3
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt
Cluster 4
Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Jeju SK FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Jeju SK FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x2226aa…408f
Cluster 5
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x92fa6c…9a3a
Cluster 6
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x5d58f6…ee3d
Cluster 7
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xc2ca50…51b6
What moved the line
- May 2O/U 2.5↓12pp53→41¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Club Independiente Petrolero (-2.5)↑9pp12→21¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Caracas FC (-2.5)↑9pp12→21¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Caracas FC (-1.5)↑8pp20→28¢ · Polymarket
- May 1Above 1.0%↑6pp73→79¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.