What is the current probability for "Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.0% in Q2 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 79¢ (79% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on July 30, 2026. 100 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.0% in Q2 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 91.6% and 1465.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.0% in Q2 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will real GDP increase by more than 1.0% in Q2 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 79% probability that Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.0% in Q2 2026?. This contract trades at 79¢ on Kalshi, closing July 30, 2026. The 78¢ price reflects strong consensus that Q2 2026 GDP will exceed 1.0% growth, but the extremely thin liquidity ($708 open interest, $53 daily volume) and massive yield asymmetry (1237.9% for No vs.

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79¢

Bid/Ask 80/85¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $1·OI $878.12·Closes Jul 30, 2026·100d remaining

KXGDP-26JUL30-T1.0

7-day price58 snapshots · 4 regime

81¢80¢ current

Apr 876¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The 78¢ price reflects strong consensus that Q2 2026 GDP will exceed 1.0% growth, but the extremely thin liquidity ($708 open interest, $53 daily volume) and massive yield asymmetry (1237.9% for No vs. 98.5% for Yes) suggest this pricing may not reflect true uncertainty—the No side's outsized yield indicates severe illiquidity rather than genuine conviction. With 105 days to expiration and a flat 7-day price trajectory, this market lacks the trading activity to validate the high implied probability, making it vulnerable to sharp repricing if economic data deteriorates.

Resolution rules

If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 1.0, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 91.6%

IY (No) 1465.4%

Adj IY 1374%

CRI 4

RV 91%

VR 0.93

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	91.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1465.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1374%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	91%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.93	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	1.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.06	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.568

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:38:03 PM

Observability highEvent type data_release

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXGDP-26JUL30-T1.0 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →