Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.5% in Q2 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 38% probability that Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.5% in Q2 2026?. This contract trades at 38¢ on Kalshi, closing July 30, 2026.
███████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
38¢Bid/Ask 35/42¢·Spread 7¢·Vol $557.28·OI $1,936.96·Closes Jul 30, 2026·100d remaining
KXGDP-26JUL30-T2.5
7-day price224 snapshots · 7 regime
38¢35¢ current
Apr 927¢Apr 21
Resolution rules
If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 2.5, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Label
neutral
Score
0.577
Spread
7¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:04:05 PM
SF edge 24.0¢ noObservability highEvent type data_release
Edges (1)
NO +24¢thesis — The Hormuz Strait is America's final battle — not because it will lose militaril
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 7:53:17 PM
Trade
View on kalshi →
sf trade KXGDP-26JUL30-T2.5 yes 100