CD Real Tomayapo vs. Club The Strongest
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 42% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
42%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$315K
6 contracts
Closes
May 17, 2026
14 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Otakar Esports win
Will Otakar Esports win the UCAM Esports Club vs. Otakar Esports Valorant match?: Otakar Esports
KXVALORANTGAME-26MAY031400UCAMOTA-OTA
Will Otakar Esports win map 2 in the UCAM Esports Club vs. Otakar Esports match?: Otakar Esports
KXVALORANTMAP-26MAY031400UCAMOTA-2-OTA
Cluster 2
Will UCAM Esports Club win
Will UCAM Esports Club win the UCAM Esports Club vs. Otakar Esports Valorant match?: UCAM Esports Club
KXVALORANTGAME-26MAY031400UCAMOTA-UCAM
Will UCAM Esports Club win map 2 in the UCAM Esports Club vs. Otakar Esports match?: UCAM Esports Club
KXVALORANTMAP-26MAY031400UCAMOTA-2-UCAM
Cluster 3
Will Natus Vincere win the Vitality vs. Natus Vincere CS2 match
Will Natus Vincere win the Vitality vs. Natus Vincere CS2 match?: Natus Vincere
KXCS2GAME-26MAY031330VITNAVI-NAVI
Cluster 4
Will G2 Esports win the Natus Vincere vs. G2 Esports League of Legends match
What moved the line
- May 3UCAM Esports Club↑48pp15→63¢ · Kalshi
- May 3UCAM Esports Club↓25pp51→26¢ · Kalshi
- May 1UCAM Esports Club↓24pp52→28¢ · Kalshi
- May 2UCAM Esports Club↑23pp28→51¢ · Kalshi
- May 2UCAM Esports Club↑11pp4→15¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.