CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC
Leader sits at 38% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 34%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Cruzeiro EC
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
34¢
CD Universidad Católica
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$102
thin orderbook
Closes
May 7, 2026
3 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC
CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC: Cruzeiro EC
0xd752fa…fd21
CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC: Draw (CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC)
0xad7996…ab4b
CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC: CD Universidad Católica
0xd2fbb1…54bd
Analysis
This 31% probability reflects market expectations that CD Universidad Católica will defeat Cruzeiro EC in an upcoming match. The current price suggests Cruzeiro is favored, with related contracts showing split sentiment across different score thresholds. The probability could move significantly based on team form leading into the match, any lineup changes or injury reports, and historical head-to-head performance. Market depth appears limited, indicated by zero 24-hour volume across most contracts, meaning the price is sensitive to new information or larger trades. The match outcome will be determined once the fixture is played, at which point the contract will settle based on the final result.
- ›Recent form and win rates for both clubs in their respective domestic leagues heading into the fixture
- ›Availability of key players due to injury, suspension, or international duty commitments
- ›Historical head-to-head record between CD Universidad Católica and Cruzeiro EC, if applicable
- ›The specific match venue and whether either team has a documented home/away performance differential
- ›Current market depth and trading volume, which at $0 24h volume suggests low liquidity and potentially wide bid-ask spreads
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.