SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 8 min agoCloses May 7, 2026 · 3d40pp · 18h

CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC - More Markets: CD Universidad Católica (-1.5)

Leader sits at 70% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 55%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

70%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 55¢leader 70¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

55¢

Both Teams to Score

Spread

15pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

May 7, 2026

3 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 70% on 2026-05-03Both Teams to Score: 59% on 2026-05-03O/U 3.5: 25% on 2026-05-03
O/U 1.570¢Both Teams to Score59¢O/U 3.525¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 1d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market is pricing a 30% probability that CD Universidad Católica will win by at least 2 goals against Cruzeiro EC. The relatively low probability reflects Cruzeiro's status as a stronger Brazilian Serie A club competing against a Chilean opponent. Key drivers of movement include recent form and goal-scoring patterns of both teams, historical head-to-head performance, and lineup availability. The match result will resolve the contract when the final whistle sounds, providing definitive clarity on whether Universidad Católica achieves a convincing victory margin. Related over/under markets suggest traders expect a competitive, lower-scoring match overall.

  • CD Universidad Católica's current domestic form and goal differential compared to their typical seasonal output
  • Cruzeiro EC's defensive record in away matches against South American opponents outside Brazil
  • Historical matchup data between these clubs, if any, or comparable recent meetings between Chilean and Brazilian teams at similar competitive levels
  • Team news regarding availability of key strikers or defensive players that would directly impact scoring potential
  • Market liquidity remains minimal (zero 24-hour volume reported), suggesting limited conviction among traders and potentially wide bid-ask spreads

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 8 min ago.