CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC - More Markets: CD Universidad Católica (-1.5)
Leader sits at 70% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 55%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
55¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
15pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 7, 2026
3 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC - More Markets
CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC - More Markets: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5)
0xd7d8f7…6414
CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x164f43…5e38
CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xe4a29d…7751
CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xb669de…1baf
CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x31951d…fba5
CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xde8096…c4da
CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC - More Markets: Cruzeiro EC (-2.5)
0x3e4bfc…77e0
CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC - More Markets: CD Universidad Católica (-2.5)
0x34cc52…06dd
CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC - More Markets: CD Universidad Católica (-1.5)
0x49cffa…0f8c
Analysis
This market is pricing a 30% probability that CD Universidad Católica will win by at least 2 goals against Cruzeiro EC. The relatively low probability reflects Cruzeiro's status as a stronger Brazilian Serie A club competing against a Chilean opponent. Key drivers of movement include recent form and goal-scoring patterns of both teams, historical head-to-head performance, and lineup availability. The match result will resolve the contract when the final whistle sounds, providing definitive clarity on whether Universidad Católica achieves a convincing victory margin. Related over/under markets suggest traders expect a competitive, lower-scoring match overall.
- ›CD Universidad Católica's current domestic form and goal differential compared to their typical seasonal output
- ›Cruzeiro EC's defensive record in away matches against South American opponents outside Brazil
- ›Historical matchup data between these clubs, if any, or comparable recent meetings between Chilean and Brazilian teams at similar competitive levels
- ›Team news regarding availability of key strikers or defensive players that would directly impact scoring potential
- ›Market liquidity remains minimal (zero 24-hour volume reported), suggesting limited conviction among traders and potentially wide bid-ask spreads
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 8 min ago.