CF Cruz Azul vs. Club Necaxa
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 8 contracts. Kalshi at 5%, Polymarket at 25% — a 20pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
5%
1 contract
Polymarket
25%
7 contracts
Cross-venue gap
20pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
8 contracts
Closes
Jun 8, 2026
36 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 5¢ · Polymarket 25¢ · 20pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (5¢, 1 contract) and sell on Polymarket (25¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
6 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets” vs “Will Cruz Azul win the Liga MX Clausura”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: National Bank of Egypt Club (-2.5)
0x5d63d2…892c
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: National Bank of Egypt Club (-1.5)
0x21ed5a…5e0d
National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets: Ismaily SC (-1.5)
0xaa1d2c…6cde
Cluster 2
Will Cruz Azul win the Liga MX Clausura
Will Cruz Azul win the Liga MX Clausura?: Cruz Azul
KXLIGAMX-26CLA-CRA
Cluster 3
Club Always Ready vs. CA Lanús: CA Lanús
Club Always Ready vs. CA Lanús: CA Lanús
0x4eec59…304b
Cluster 4
Liga MX: Winner: Cruz Azul
Liga MX: Winner: Cruz Azul
0xabb43b…0d0a
Cluster 5
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: O/U 2.5
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x6495f7…7b3b
Cluster 6
CA Barracas Central vs. Club Olimpia: Draw
CA Barracas Central vs. Club Olimpia: Draw (CA Barracas Central vs. Club Olimpia)
0x56b99e…e1d8
What moved the line
- Apr 29Winner: Cruz Azul↓20pp34→14¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Winner: Cruz Azul↓19pp25→6¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30Cruz Azul↓10pp20→10¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Cruz Azul↑7pp9→16¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Cruz Azul↑7pp10→17¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.