Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 34% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
34%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−22pp
6h ago
24h volume
$1K
20 contracts
Closes
May 6, 2026
3 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC” vs “Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: Liaoning Tieren FC
0x767937…230b
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)
0xeacd4b…9c9e
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: Chengdu Rongcheng FC
0x6c60ac…e575
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x265119…772e
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: Draw (Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC)
0x096646…ef18
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5)
0x069e2b…e280
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x691544…6208
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-2.5)
0x45e030…a07f
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: Liaoning Tieren FC (-1.5)
0x1da10f…ed87
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xd79dfe…f845
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x821567…77e8
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x796d0b…4310
Cluster 2
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: Yunnan Yukun FC
0xf9ca09…9d93
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xc6f8d0…d7bf
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: Zhejiang Zhiye FC
0xd6f0e5…56f3
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC - More Markets: Yunnan Yukun FC (-2.5)
0x869a6a…4522
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC - More Markets: Zhejiang Zhiye FC (-1.5)
0xeeea9e…2ed8
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xf85773…31fe
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xc0a65a…2079
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: Draw (Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC)
0xe3c328…a6ac
Analysis
This probability represents an expectation that Chengdu Rongcheng FC will win against Zhejiang Zhiye FC at 56%, slightly favoring the home or traditionally stronger side. The prediction relies on limited market depth, with most trading volume concentrated in related Liaoning Tieren FC contracts rather than direct Chengdu-Zhejiang matchups. The market would shift based on recent team form, injury reports, and head-to-head historical performance between these Chinese Super League clubs. Resolution depends on the scheduled match result; key uncertainties include current league standings, each team's recent wins/losses, and any lineup changes announced closer to game day. Higher trading volume and more direct market contracts would provide greater confidence in the 56% figure.
- ›Limited direct market liquidity for this specific matchup, with most volume in tangential Liaoning Tieren contracts, reducing confidence in the probability estimate
- ›Recent competitive form and league standings of both Chengdu Rongcheng FC and Zhejiang Zhiye FC at the time of match
- ›Head-to-head historical record and performance metrics between these two clubs in previous seasons
- ›Injury status and roster changes for key players announced in the days before the scheduled fixture
- ›Goal-scoring averages and defensive records for both teams in current season play
What moved the line
- May 3Zhejiang Zhiye FC (-1.5)↑16pp17→33¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-2.5)↓10pp32→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Yunnan Yukun FC (-2.5)↑10pp14→24¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Liaoning Tieren FC↓9pp25→16¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)↓6pp12→6¢ · Polymarket
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 23 min ago.