Chicago Fire FC vs. FC Cincinnati
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 42% across 17 contracts. Kalshi at 42%, Polymarket at 32% — a 10pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
42%
16 contracts
Polymarket
32%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
10pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$751
17 contracts
Closes
Aug 31, 2026
119 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 42¢ · Polymarket 32¢ · 10pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (32¢, 1 contract) and sell on Kalshi (42¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
4 clusters across 17 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Cincinnati vs Chicago C” vs “Chicago Fire”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Cincinnati vs Chicago C
Cincinnati vs Chicago C Winner?: Chicago C
KXMLBGAME-26MAY041940CINCHC-CHC
Cincinnati vs Chicago C Winner?: Cincinnati
KXMLBGAME-26MAY041940CINCHC-CIN
Cincinnati vs Chicago C Winner?: Cincinnati
KXMLBGAME-26MAY051940CINCHC-CIN
Cincinnati vs Chicago C Winner?: Chicago C
KXMLBGAME-26MAY051940CINCHC-CHC
Cincinnati vs Chicago C First Inning Run?: Yes
KXMLBRFI-26MAY041940CINCHC
Cincinnati vs Chicago C First Inning Run?: Yes
KXMLBRFI-26MAY051940CINCHC
Cluster 2
Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire vs New York RB Winner?: Chicago Fire
KXMLSGAME-26MAY09CHINYRB-CHI
Chicago Fire vs New York RB Winner?: New York RB
KXMLSGAME-26MAY09CHINYRB-NYRB
Chicago Fire vs New York RB Winner?: Tie
KXMLSGAME-26MAY09CHINYRB-TIE
Chicago Fire wins by over 1.5 goals?: Chicago Fire wins by over 1.5 goals
KXMLSSPREAD-26MAY09CHINYRB-CHI1
Chicago Fire wins by over 2.5 goals?: Chicago Fire wins by over 2.5 goals
KXMLSSPREAD-26MAY09CHINYRB-CHI2
Cluster 3
New York RB at Chicago Fire
New York RB at Chicago Fire: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score
KXMLSBTTS-26MAY09CHINYRB
New York RB at Chicago Fire: Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored
KXMLSTOTAL-26MAY09CHINYRB-3
New York RB at Chicago Fire: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXMLSTOTAL-26MAY09CHINYRB-1
New York RB at Chicago Fire: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
KXMLSTOTAL-26MAY09CHINYRB-4
New York RB at Chicago Fire: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXMLSTOTAL-26MAY09CHINYRB-2
Cluster 4
Which club will Cristiano Ronaldo play for next
Which club will Cristiano Ronaldo play for next?: Chicago Fire FC
0x7eb1f9…fb5a
What moved the line
- May 3Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored↑56pp12→68¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored↑44pp6→50¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Chicago Fire↑27pp24→51¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Chicago Fire wins by over 1.5 goals↑27pp2→29¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored↑25pp7→32¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.