SimpleFunctions
20 contractsKalshirefreshed 4 min ago

Chicago Stars FC vs. Boston Legacy FC

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 42% across 20 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

42%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

42%

20 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$6K

20 contracts

Top contract

14¢

$2K · Kalshi

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 38% (4 days, 4 points)Aggregate: 38% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 20 contracts · 4d

Bracket families

9 clusters across 20 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Boston Breach win

4 contracts$3K

Cluster 2

Will LOUD win

3 contracts$2K

Cluster 3

Will Paris Gentle Mates win

3 contracts$601

Cluster 4

Will Vivo Keyd Stars

3 contracts$596

Cluster 5

Boston Legacy FC vs Denver Summit FC Winner

2 contracts$295

Cluster 6

Will 7REX win

2 contracts$23

Cluster 7

Will over 3.5 maps be played in the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates Call of Duty match

1 contract$300

Cluster 8

Will over 2.5 maps be played in the Vivo Keyd Stars vs. LOUD League of Legends match

1 contract$0

Cluster 9

Will over 4.5 maps be played in the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates Call of Duty match

1 contract$0

What moved the line

  • May 3Vivo Keyd Stars43pp1255¢ · Kalshi
  • May 1Vivo Keyd Stars32pp4412¢ · Kalshi
  • May 1Over 3.5 maps26pp228¢ · Kalshi
  • May 3Vivo Keyd Stars Academy23pp2952¢ · Kalshi
  • May 2Over 3.5 maps18pp2846¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.