Chicago Stars FC vs. NJ/NY Gotham FC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 41% across 14 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
41%
14 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
14 contracts
Closes
May 3, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Will Vivo Keyd Stars” vs “Will LOUD win”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Vivo Keyd Stars
Will Vivo Keyd Stars win the Vivo Keyd Stars vs. LOUD League of Legends match?: Vivo Keyd Stars
KXLOLGAME-26MAY031500VKSLLL-VKS
Will Vivo Keyd Stars win map 1 in the Vivo Keyd Stars vs. LOUD match?: Vivo Keyd Stars
KXLOLMAP-26MAY031500VKSLLL-1-VKS
Will Vivo Keyd Stars Academy win map 2 in the Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs. 7REX match?: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy
KXLOLMAP-26MAY041900VKSA7RE-2-VKSA
Will Vivo Keyd Stars win map 2 in the Vivo Keyd Stars vs. LOUD match?: Vivo Keyd Stars
KXLOLMAP-26MAY031500VKSLLL-2-VKS
Will Vivo Keyd Stars Academy win the Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs. 7REX League of Legends match?: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy
KXLOLGAME-26MAY041900VKSA7RE-VKSA
Will Vivo Keyd Stars Academy win map 1 in the Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs. 7REX match?: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy
KXLOLMAP-26MAY041900VKSA7RE-1-VKSA
Cluster 2
Will LOUD win
Will LOUD win the Vivo Keyd Stars vs. LOUD League of Legends match?: LOUD
KXLOLGAME-26MAY031500VKSLLL-LLL
Will LOUD win map 2 in the Vivo Keyd Stars vs. LOUD match?: LOUD
KXLOLMAP-26MAY031500VKSLLL-2-LLL
Will LOUD win map 1 in the Vivo Keyd Stars vs. LOUD match?: LOUD
KXLOLMAP-26MAY031500VKSLLL-1-LLL
Cluster 3
Will 7REX win
Will 7REX win the Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs. 7REX League of Legends match?: 7REX
KXLOLGAME-26MAY041900VKSA7RE-7RE
Will 7REX win map 1 in the Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs. 7REX match?: 7REX
KXLOLMAP-26MAY041900VKSA7RE-1-7RE
Will 7REX win map 2 in the Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs. 7REX match?: 7REX
KXLOLMAP-26MAY041900VKSA7RE-2-7RE
Cluster 4
Will over 2.5 maps be played in the Vivo Keyd Stars
Will over 2.5 maps be played in the Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs. 7REX League of Legends match?: Over 2.5 maps
KXLOLTOTALMAPS-26MAY041900VKSA7RE-3
Will over 2.5 maps be played in the Vivo Keyd Stars vs. LOUD League of Legends match?: Over 2.5 maps
KXLOLTOTALMAPS-26MAY031500VKSLLL-3
Analysis
The 40% probability reflects market expectation that Chicago Stars FC will win this match against NJ/NY Gotham FC. Pricing differs notably between venues, with Kalshi contracts averaging 45% versus Polymarket at 39%, suggesting either different trader demographics or interpretation of available information. Factors influencing this level include recent team form, head-to-head records, and injury status. The match result will resolve this uncertainty on its scheduled date. Current trading volume concentrates on the moneyline, while secondary markets for over/under goals and both teams scoring show minimal activity, indicating less certainty around game structure versus outcome.
- ›Chicago Stars quoted at 14¢ on Polymarket's primary contract represents approximately 14% implied probability, creating a 26-percentage-point gap from the 40% aggregated average
- ›Six percentage point divergence between Kalshi (45%) and Polymarket (39%) suggests potential information asymmetry or different market participant composition between venues
- ›24-hour volume concentration on moneyline contracts ($118-$122) versus near-zero volume on O/U 3.5 and both-teams-to-score derivatives indicates confidence consensus on winner rather than match structure
- ›Historical win rates, goal differential, and defensive rankings of both clubs in the current season would drive substantial repricing if recent performance has shifted
- ›Injury status of key attacking or defensive players, confirmed closer to match date, typically moves moneyline probabilities 3-8 percentage points depending on player importance
What moved the line
- May 3Vivo Keyd Stars↑43pp12→55¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Vivo Keyd Stars↓32pp44→12¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Vivo Keyd Stars Academy↑23pp29→52¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Vivo Keyd Stars Academy↓22pp52→30¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Vivo Keyd Stars Academy↓18pp47→29¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.