Chicago Stars FC vs. Portland Thorns FC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 40% across 17 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
40%
17 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
17 contracts
Closes
May 18, 2026
15 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 17 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Will Vivo Keyd Stars” vs “Will LOUD win”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Vivo Keyd Stars
Will Vivo Keyd Stars win the Vivo Keyd Stars vs. LOUD League of Legends match?: Vivo Keyd Stars
KXLOLGAME-26MAY031500VKSLLL-VKS
Will Vivo Keyd Stars Academy win map 1 in the Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs. 7REX match?: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy
KXLOLMAP-26MAY041900VKSA7RE-1-VKSA
Will Vivo Keyd Stars win map 1 in the Vivo Keyd Stars vs. LOUD match?: Vivo Keyd Stars
KXLOLMAP-26MAY031500VKSLLL-1-VKS
Will Vivo Keyd Stars win map 2 in the Vivo Keyd Stars vs. LOUD match?: Vivo Keyd Stars
KXLOLMAP-26MAY031500VKSLLL-2-VKS
Will Vivo Keyd Stars Academy win map 2 in the Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs. 7REX match?: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy
KXLOLMAP-26MAY041900VKSA7RE-2-VKSA
Will Vivo Keyd Stars Academy win the Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs. 7REX League of Legends match?: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy
KXLOLGAME-26MAY041900VKSA7RE-VKSA
Cluster 2
Will LOUD win
Will LOUD win the Vivo Keyd Stars vs. LOUD League of Legends match?: LOUD
KXLOLGAME-26MAY031500VKSLLL-LLL
Will LOUD win map 2 in the Vivo Keyd Stars vs. LOUD match?: LOUD
KXLOLMAP-26MAY031500VKSLLL-2-LLL
Will LOUD win map 1 in the Vivo Keyd Stars vs. LOUD match?: LOUD
KXLOLMAP-26MAY031500VKSLLL-1-LLL
Cluster 3
Chicago vs Portland Thorns Winner
Cluster 4
Will 7REX win
Will 7REX win the Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs. 7REX League of Legends match?: 7REX
KXLOLGAME-26MAY041900VKSA7RE-7RE
Will 7REX win map 2 in the Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs. 7REX match?: 7REX
KXLOLMAP-26MAY041900VKSA7RE-2-7RE
Will 7REX win map 1 in the Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs. 7REX match?: 7REX
KXLOLMAP-26MAY041900VKSA7RE-1-7RE
Cluster 5
Will over 2.5 maps be played in the Vivo Keyd Stars
Will over 2.5 maps be played in the Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs. 7REX League of Legends match?: Over 2.5 maps
KXLOLTOTALMAPS-26MAY041900VKSA7RE-3
Will over 2.5 maps be played in the Vivo Keyd Stars vs. LOUD League of Legends match?: Over 2.5 maps
KXLOLTOTALMAPS-26MAY031500VKSLLL-3
Analysis
This 39% probability represents traders' estimate that Chicago Stars FC will defeat Portland Thorns FC in an upcoming match. The substantial 13-percentage-point gap between Polymarket (41%) and Kalshi (28%) suggests disagreement about Chicago's chances, likely reflecting different weightings of recent team performance, injury status, or home-field advantage. The match outcome will depend primarily on current roster availability, recent form and head-to-head dynamics, and venue conditions. Resolution occurs immediately following the match completion, making this a straightforward binary event with minimal ambiguity.
- ›Chicago's recent win-loss record and goal differential compared to Portland's current season performance
- ›Injury or roster availability status for key players on both teams as of match day
- ›Historical head-to-head results between these teams and home vs. away performance patterns
- ›The 13-percentage-point spread between venues suggests either systematic differences in trader bases or asymmetric information access between markets
- ›Home-field advantage location and any documented weather or field condition factors affecting play style
What moved the line
- May 3Vivo Keyd Stars↑43pp12→55¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Vivo Keyd Stars↓32pp44→12¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Vivo Keyd Stars Academy↑23pp29→52¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Vivo Keyd Stars Academy↓22pp52→30¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Vivo Keyd Stars Academy↓18pp47→29¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.