Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC
Leader sits at 38% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 35%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
35¢
Henan FC
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$57
thin orderbook
Closes
May 5, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC
0x903ccc…b6d5
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC: Draw (Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC)
0x4742f4…9a7f
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC: Henan FC
0x87c7a1…b306
Analysis
This probability suggests roughly a 1-in-3 chance that Chongqing Tonglianglong FC wins in an upcoming matchup against Henan FC. The 32% figure reflects aggregated predictions from multiple markets, with Polymarket slightly bullish on Chongqing (38¢) compared to Kalshi (33¢). The current level likely reflects base expectations about team strength, recent form, and home-field advantage. Uncertainty will resolve once the match is played—the primary catalyst is the scheduled game itself. Between now and kickoff, changes in betting probability would typically respond to team news (injuries, roster moves), recent performance streaks, or betting volume shifts that signal emerging consensus among traders.
- ›Chongqing is priced as a moderate underdog at 32%, implying Henan or a draw carries 68% implied probability
- ›Polymarket's Chongqing contract (38¢) exceeds Kalshi (33¢) by 5 percentage points, suggesting venue-specific trader disagreement on win odds
- ›Lower 24-hour volumes on most contracts ($0–$53) indicate thin market activity and potentially wider spreads, making prices less stable than high-volume venues
- ›O/U 2.5 goals market shows 44% probability, suggesting the match is expected to be relatively low-scoring if traded assumptions hold
- ›The specific scheduled match date will trigger resolution; any pre-match developments affecting team availability or conditions could move prices materially before that event
What moved the line
- May 2Chongqing Tonglianglong FC↓5pp41→36¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Henan FC↑3pp32→35¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.