Club Always Ready vs. CA Lanús
Leader sits at 55% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 24%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Club Always Ready
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
24¢
Draw (Club Always Ready vs.
Spread
31pp
contested
24h volume
$264
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Club Always Ready vs. CA Lanús
Analysis
This probability represents the implied likelihood that Club Always Ready will defeat CA Lanús in an upcoming match. The markets are pricing in a competitive fixture, though disagreement between venues suggests genuine uncertainty about the outcome. Kalshi traders assign Club Always Ready a higher win probability (56%) compared to Polymarket (45%), a 12-point gap that may reflect different trader bases or information availability. Key drivers include each team's recent form, head-to-head history, and home-field advantage considerations. The match outcome will definitively resolve this contract, eliminating all uncertainty once the final whistle sounds.
- ›Kalshi prices Club Always Ready at 56% while Polymarket prices them at 45%, indicating material disagreement on match likelihood
- ›Polymarket shows $74 in 24-hour volume on the CA Lanús contract but $0 volume on Club Always Ready, suggesting liquidity is concentrated on one side
- ›The cross-venue 12-percentage-point gap is substantial enough to represent exploitable pricing differences if one market holds superior information
- ›No recent trades appear on low-volume contracts (Esports, Crashers), suggesting the dataset may conflate unrelated events or include stale pricing
- ›Match resolution depends on game outcome occurring and being properly reported to contract specifications
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.