Club Bolívar vs. Club Independiente Petrolero
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
33%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
20 contracts
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 13% of their title tokens — “Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC” vs “Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x3dd944…aba5
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC - More Markets: Caracas FC (-1.5)
0x3ac6cb…cb5b
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xf89db8…aff8
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC: Caracas FC
0xcdfe02…cef4
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC - More Markets: Club Independiente Petrolero (-1.5)
0xc0f87e…3cf8
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC: Draw (Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC)
0x4a30de…1f0a
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC: Club Independiente Petrolero
0xdbb8be…cf08
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC - More Markets: Club Independiente Petrolero (-2.5)
0x378f7b…5bbb
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x2b4c20…150c
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x14b9f0…8346
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x2900cd…928a
Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC - More Markets: Caracas FC (-2.5)
0x757589…4a25
Cluster 2
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar: Club Bolívar
0x866f7d…e26f
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x751636…dd07
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets: Club Bolívar (-2.5)
0x0a4cf4…a0fc
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xbd91ad…e563
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x235d60…e322
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar: Draw (Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar)
0x6baef5…32db
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x918a9b…2eb7
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar: Deportivo La Guaira FC
0xc1b5b2…4113
What moved the line
- May 3Caracas FC (-2.5)↑9pp12→21¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Club Independiente Petrolero (-2.5)↑9pp12→21¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Caracas FC (-1.5)↑8pp20→28¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.