Croatia vs. Ghana
Leader sits at 41% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Croatia
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
Ghana
Spread
13pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 27, 2026
54 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Croatia vs. Ghana
Analysis
This probability reflects the expected likelihood that Croatia will defeat Ghana in an upcoming match. The 31% aggregate masks a significant 22-percentage-point gap between venues, with Kalshi contracts showing much lower confidence in a Croatian win (13%) compared to Polymarket (35%). The discrepancy suggests traders may be weighing different information sets or applying different methodologies. Key drivers include each team's recent form, head-to-head history, squad composition, and any roster changes or injuries closer to match day. The resolution will occur when the match is played; the current market prices should adjust as game day approaches and any late-breaking team news emerges.
- ›22-percentage-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests potential arbitrage opportunity or divergent information assumptions
- ›Top Kalshi contract prices Croatia at 25¢ while top Polymarket contracts range 21¢-58¢ depending on matchup, indicating liquidity concentration and venue-specific sentiment
- ›Ghana contract pricing at 30¢ and 45¢ on Polymarket implies roughly symmetric market expectations, though lower volume on Ghana-specific contracts ($0 24h vol) suggests less conviction
- ›Limited 24-hour volume on most contracts suggests thin liquidity; large trades could move prices significantly before match day
- ›Exact match date and final team lineups are critical inputs; any player unavailability or late roster changes could shift probabilities sharply
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.