CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CA Boca Juniors - More Markets: CA Boca Juniors (-1.5)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 27% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 33%, Polymarket at 26% — a 7pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
2 contracts
Polymarket
26%
18 contracts
Cross-venue gap
7pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$420
20 contracts
Top contract
24¢
$303 · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 33¢ · Polymarket 26¢ · 7pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (26¢, 18 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (33¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
5 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Barcelona SC vs. CA Boca Juniors” vs “CSyD Macará vs. CA Tigre - More Markets”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Barcelona SC vs. CA Boca Juniors
Barcelona SC vs. CA Boca Juniors: CA Boca Juniors
0x3292ca…0ecf
Barcelona SC vs. CA Boca Juniors - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x5509fe…6839
Barcelona SC vs. CA Boca Juniors - More Markets: CA Boca Juniors (-2.5)
0x054c76…b352
Barcelona SC vs. CA Boca Juniors - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xe5bd70…4ec1
Barcelona SC vs. CA Boca Juniors - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x466b1e…275c
Barcelona SC vs. CA Boca Juniors - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x6fb786…a248
Barcelona SC vs. CA Boca Juniors - More Markets: CA Boca Juniors (-1.5)
0xf8dc44…3961
Barcelona SC vs. CA Boca Juniors - More Markets: Barcelona SC (-2.5)
0x26b622…c4ec
Barcelona SC vs. CA Boca Juniors: Draw (Barcelona SC vs. CA Boca Juniors)
0xd45bfc…a3ff
Barcelona SC vs. CA Boca Juniors - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x6c9dfd…2435
Barcelona SC vs. CA Boca Juniors - More Markets: Barcelona SC (-1.5)
0x69d6ed…d3d6
Barcelona SC vs. CA Boca Juniors: Barcelona SC
0xe915f7…88c2
Cluster 2
CSyD Macará vs. CA Tigre - More Markets
CSyD Macará vs. CA Tigre - More Markets: CSyD Macará (-1.5)
0x351a5f…c2ae
CSyD Macará vs. CA Tigre - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xb60b67…94e3
CSyD Macará vs. CA Tigre - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x63b32d…c62b
CSyD Macará vs. CA Tigre - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x928757…d1f0
CSyD Macará vs. CA Tigre - More Markets: CA Tigre (-1.5)
0xfe5d0b…1624
Cluster 3
Mendoza vs Defensa y Justicia Winner
Mendoza vs Defensa y Justicia Winner?: Defensa y Justicia
KXARGPREMDIVGAME-26MAY04GEMDYJ-DYJ
Cluster 4
Barcelona vs Boca Juniors Winner
Barcelona vs Boca Juniors Winner?: Boca Juniors
KXCONMEBOLLIBGAME-26MAY05BSCBOC-BOC
Cluster 5
Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Boca Juniors
Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Boca Juniors
0x431dd5…aa35
What moved the line
- May 3CA Boca Juniors (-2.5)↑7pp12→19¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Barcelona SC (-2.5)↑3pp10→13¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.