SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 12 outcomes12 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 7 min agoCloses May 6, 2026 · 2d

Cusco FC vs. FC Cajamarca

Leader sits at 65% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 49%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

65%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 49¢leader 65¢

Outcomes

12

winner-take-all

Runner-up

49¢

Both Teams to Score

Spread

16pp

contested

24h volume

$37

thin orderbook

Closes

May 6, 2026

2 days

Venue

Polymarket

12 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayBoth Teams to Score: 50% on 2026-05-03Estudiantes de La Plata: 38% (2 days, 2 points)Estudiantes de La Plata: 38% on 2026-05-03Cusco FC: 33% (2 days, 2 points)Cusco FC: 33% on 2026-05-03
Both Teams to Score50¢Estudiantes de La Plata38¢Cusco FC33¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.