Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC
Leader sits at 43% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
Incheon United FC
Spread
15pp
contested
24h volume
$343
thin orderbook
Closes
May 5, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC: Incheon United FC
0x10cbc2…77dd
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC: Daejeon Hana Citizen FC
0x76a37b…687c
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC: Draw (Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC)
0x747211…dabc
Analysis
This represents the market's assessment that Daejeon Hana Citizen FC will win their upcoming match against Incheon United FC, currently priced at 32%. The probability reflects expectations about relative team form, home-field advantage, and recent performance in the K League. The market shows modest disagreement across venues, with Polymarket pricing Daejeon slightly higher (33%) than Kalshi (29%), suggesting some uncertainty about which team enters the match with better momentum. The key driver would be any roster changes, injury reports, or recent league standings that shift perceived competitive strength between the two clubs. Resolution will occur at the scheduled match completion, which would definitively settle whether Daejeon wins, draws, or loses. Current trading volume on the direct win contract remains moderate, indicating moderate market confidence in the price estimate rather than strong conviction in either direction.
- ›K League 2025-2026 standings and recent form: Daejeon's and Incheon's current position, points, and results from last 5-10 matches
- ›Head-to-head history: Historical match results between these clubs, including venue-specific performance patterns
- ›Injury and roster status: Confirmed player absences or returns that materially affect squad depth or tactical options
- ›Polymarket-Kalshi price divergence of 4 percentage points: Whether the gap reflects genuine disagreement or temporary market friction
- ›Match date and venue confirmation: The specific scheduled date and location to assess home-field dynamics and travel factors
What moved the line
- May 3Incheon United FC↓4pp32→28¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.