Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets
Leader sits at 71% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 51%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
51¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
20pp
contested
24h volume
$40
thin orderbook
Closes
May 5, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x5d58f6…ee3d
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: Incheon United FC (-2.5)
0x4ce71d…a7ed
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x110c54…a329
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x73881e…c695
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x14ce80…b44a
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x322393…b00a
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: Daejeon Hana Citizen FC (-2.5)
0x2db8ba…2d23
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: Incheon United FC (-1.5)
0x8d81ee…e872
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: Daejeon Hana Citizen FC (-1.5)
0x1b4942…ebf9
Analysis
This market reflects a 31% probability that Daejeon Hana Citizen FC will win their matchup against Incheon United FC. The probability sits roughly mid-range, suggesting meaningful uncertainty between the two teams. Daejeon is currently priced slightly favored at 43 cents, while Incheon as an underdog sits at 27 cents. The cross-venue consistency (Kalshi at 29%, Polymarket at 31%) indicates reasonable agreement across major prediction markets. The matchup probability will be resolved when the game is played; notably, the over/under 3.5 goals market trades at only 24 cents, suggesting traders expect a lower-scoring contest. Trading volume remains modest across most contracts, with the head-to-head matchup showing the highest activity. Factors like recent team form, head-to-head history, injury status, and home/away advantage would typically influence where traders believe this probability should settle.
- ›Daejeon Hana Citizen FC trades 16 percentage points higher than Incheon United FC in win probability (43¢ vs 27¢), indicating market consensus that Daejeon enters as the favored side
- ›The under 3.5 goals market at 24 cents is significantly lower than typical goal-heavy markets, suggesting traders expect defensive play or limited scoring opportunities
- ›Trading volume concentrates on the direct head-to-head matchup ($142 24h vol) rather than spread or total markets, indicating less specialized positioning and more fundamental uncertainty
- ›Polymarket shows only a 2 percentage point premium over Kalshi (31% vs 29%), suggesting cross-venue consensus, though absolute volume remains modest at $70-298 per contract
- ›The match outcome depends on a scheduled game event with no announced postponements or extraordinary circumstances mentioned in available data
What moved the line
- May 2Incheon United FC (-1.5)↓18pp35→17¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Incheon United FC (-2.5)↓17pp35→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Daejeon Hana Citizen FC (-2.5)↓14pp34→20¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Incheon United FC (-1.5)↑8pp17→25¢ · Polymarket
- May 2O/U 2.5↓7pp52→45¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.