D.C. United SC vs. Orlando City SC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 37% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 40%, Polymarket at 34% — a 6pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
40%
11 contracts
Polymarket
34%
9 contracts
Cross-venue gap
6pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$9K
20 contracts
Closes
Jun 13, 2026
40 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 40¢ · Polymarket 34¢ · 6pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (34¢, 9 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (40¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
8 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
DC United at New York City
DC United at New York City: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score
KXMLSBTTS-26MAY03NYCDCU
DC United at New York City: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXMLSTOTAL-26MAY03NYCDCU-1
DC United at New York City: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXMLSTOTAL-26MAY03NYCDCU-2
DC United at New York City: Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored
KXMLSTOTAL-26MAY03NYCDCU-3
DC United at New York City: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
KXMLSTOTAL-26MAY03NYCDCU-4
Cluster 2
New York City
New York City vs DC United Winner?: DC United
KXMLSGAME-26MAY03NYCDCU-DCU
New York City vs DC United Winner?: New York City
KXMLSGAME-26MAY03NYCDCU-NYC
New York City vs DC United Winner?: Tie
KXMLSGAME-26MAY03NYCDCU-TIE
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x0e25b5…6674
Cluster 3
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC: Incheon United FC
0x10cbc2…77dd
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x5d58f6…ee3d
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: Incheon United FC (-2.5)
0x4ce71d…a7ed
Cluster 4
Will Zero Tenacity win
Cluster 5
United States vs. Paraguay
Cluster 6
Fujieda MYFC vs. Fukushima United FC - More Markets: O/U
Cluster 7
Will Nigma Galaxy win the Zero Tenacity vs. Nigma Galaxy Dota 2 match
Will Nigma Galaxy win the Zero Tenacity vs. Nigma Galaxy Dota 2 match?: Nigma Galaxy
KXDOTA2GAME-26MAY031100Z10NGX-NGX
Cluster 8
FC Imabari vs. Kōchi United SC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
FC Imabari vs. Kōchi United SC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x58385d…685c
What moved the line
- Apr 27Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score↑30pp19→49¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Incheon United FC (-2.5)↓17pp35→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Zero Tenacity↑10pp12→22¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Nigma Galaxy↑9pp70→79¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored↑6pp65→71¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 13 min ago.