Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets
Leader sits at 73% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 55%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
55¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
18pp
contested
24h volume
$16
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x7dbbcc…5def
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x751636…dd07
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x235d60…e322
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x918a9b…2eb7
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xbd91ad…e563
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets: Club Bolívar (-2.5)
0x0a4cf4…a0fc
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets: Deportivo La Guaira FC (-2.5)
0x457f50…fc0a
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets: Club Bolívar (-1.5)
0xf9ba9e…120c
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets: Deportivo La Guaira FC (-1.5)
0xf2f098…756f
Analysis
This 62% probability reflects traders' assessment that both Deportivo La Guaira and Club Bolívar will score in their upcoming match. The high probability suggests relatively balanced offensive and defensive capabilities between the teams, with both expected to generate scoring opportunities. Factors supporting both-teams scoring include typical Copa Libertadores match patterns where competitive sides often exchange goals, and any tactical setups favoring open play would reinforce this view. Conversely, a defensive-minded approach from either team or significant roster absences could lower the probability. The match itself will resolve the uncertainty once completed; recent form, head-to-head history, and team sheet availability closer to kickoff will likely drive probability shifts in the final trading period.
- ›Historical scoring rates in matchups between Bolivian and Venezuelan league champions typically show goal exchanges in 55-70% of contests
- ›Deportivo La Guaira's season-to-date goals-for and goals-against averages relative to Club Bolívar's defensive record will establish baseline expectations
- ›Team sheet confirmations, particularly injury status of key strikers or defenders, typically trigger measurable probability adjustments within 24 hours of kickoff
- ›Under 3.5 total goals currently prices at 26¢, indicating traders expect moderate scoring rather than a high-volume offensive display
- ›Zero trading volume across all five contracts in the past 24 hours suggests minimal new information flow or market conviction shifts since current probabilities formed
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.