SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 9 min agoCloses May 6, 2026 · 2d11pp · 12h

Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets

Leader sits at 73% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 55%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

73%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 55¢leader 73¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

55¢

Both Teams to Score

Spread

18pp

contested

24h volume

$16

thin orderbook

Closes

May 6, 2026

2 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayBoth Teams to Score: 63% on 2026-05-03O/U 3.5: 26% on 2026-05-03Club Bolívar (-1.5): 26% on 2026-05-03
Both Teams to Score63¢O/U 3.526¢Club Bolívar (-1.5)26¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 1d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This 62% probability reflects traders' assessment that both Deportivo La Guaira and Club Bolívar will score in their upcoming match. The high probability suggests relatively balanced offensive and defensive capabilities between the teams, with both expected to generate scoring opportunities. Factors supporting both-teams scoring include typical Copa Libertadores match patterns where competitive sides often exchange goals, and any tactical setups favoring open play would reinforce this view. Conversely, a defensive-minded approach from either team or significant roster absences could lower the probability. The match itself will resolve the uncertainty once completed; recent form, head-to-head history, and team sheet availability closer to kickoff will likely drive probability shifts in the final trading period.

  • Historical scoring rates in matchups between Bolivian and Venezuelan league champions typically show goal exchanges in 55-70% of contests
  • Deportivo La Guaira's season-to-date goals-for and goals-against averages relative to Club Bolívar's defensive record will establish baseline expectations
  • Team sheet confirmations, particularly injury status of key strikers or defenders, typically trigger measurable probability adjustments within 24 hours of kickoff
  • Under 3.5 total goals currently prices at 26¢, indicating traders expect moderate scoring rather than a high-volume offensive display
  • Zero trading volume across all five contracts in the past 24 hours suggests minimal new information flow or market conviction shifts since current probabilities formed

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.