England vs. Croatia
Leader sits at 57% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 25%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
England
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
25¢
Draw (England vs. Croatia)
Spread
32pp
contested
24h volume
$60
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
59 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
England vs. Croatia
Analysis
This 39% probability reflects current market expectations that England will win an upcoming match against Croatia. The probability sits below the 50% threshold, suggesting markets currently favor Croatia or view the match as competitive. England's win probability is influenced by team form, head-to-head history, player availability, and tactical matchups. The primary uncertainty will be resolved when the match is played; current betting activity shows moderate liquidity on England as favorite (54¢ on Kalshi), though some markets price Croatia's chances higher. The cross-venue gap of 3 percentage points between Kalshi and Polymarket indicates venues have slightly different crowd assessments of the matchup.
- ›England win contract trades at 54¢ on Kalshi versus lower prices on competing markets, indicating price divergence that traders may be evaluating
- ›Recent 24-hour volume of $265 on the England winner contract suggests active but not extreme market participation
- ›Polymarket's Croatia contract trades at 21¢, implying different implied win probability than the aggregated 39% England probability across venues
- ›Multiple draw contracts across related matches (Panama vs. England, Croatia vs. Ghana) trade at 25¢, suggesting uncertainty around broader tournament structure or match conditions
- ›The 3 percentage point gap between venues indicates material disagreement on match probability that hasn't been arbitraged away
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 13 min ago.