EPL: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor)

30-day trend

Analysis

This 29% probability represents the collective assessment that Newcastle United finishes 17th in the English Premier League, which would trigger automatic relegation to the Championship. The market is pricing in Newcastle's mid-table positioning relative to the safety threshold, with key uncertainty around their injury situation, managerial decisions, and fixture difficulty through the end of the season. The relegation picture typically clarifies substantially in the final 10 matches (late April through May), when form inconsistencies become statistically significant and teams face their critical run-in. Leicester's promotion-chase performance and which mid-table clubs stumble most heavily down the stretch will directly influence whether Newcastle's current gap holds or tightens.

• ›Newcastle's current league position, recent 5-10 match form, and point differential relative to the 18th-place team
• ›Upcoming fixture difficulty and head-to-head matchups between Newcastle and other teams in direct relegation competition
• ›Injury status of key squad players and managerial changes or tactical shifts affecting performance consistency
• ›Historical volatility in final-season standings—whether Newcastle has pulled clear of the relegation zone or maintains a narrow buffer
• ›Comparative form trends of direct competitors fighting for the same 17th-place finish versus automatic relegation

What moved the line

• May 217th Place (Relegation Survivor): Newcastle United↓17pp22→5¢ · Polymarket
• Apr 2817th Place (Relegation Survivor): Leeds United↑3pp10→13¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds