Miami Grand Prix
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
30%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−53pp
12h ago
24h volume
$1.0M
19 contracts
Closes
May 17, 2026
14 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Miami Grand Prix” vs “Will the Miami Grand Prix be postponed or canceled due to weather”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Miami Grand Prix
Miami Grand Prix Winner: Max Verstappen
KXF1RACE-MIAGP26-VER
Miami Grand Prix Winner: Andrea Kimi Antonelli
KXF1RACE-MIAGP26-ANT
Miami Grand Prix Winner: Lando Norris
KXF1RACE-MIAGP26-NOR
Miami Grand Prix Winner: Charles Leclerc
KXF1RACE-MIAGP26-LEC
Miami Grand Prix Winner: George Russell
KXF1RACE-MIAGP26-RUS
Miami Grand Prix: Podium Finishers: Oscar Piastri
KXF1RACEPODIUM-MIAGP26-PIA
Miami Grand Prix: Podium Finishers: Max Verstappen
KXF1RACEPODIUM-MIAGP26-VER
Miami Grand Prix: Top 10 Finishers: Andrea Kimi Antonelli
KXF1TOP10-MIAGP26-ANT
Miami Grand Prix: Podium Finishers: Lewis Hamilton
KXF1RACEPODIUM-MIAGP26-HAM
Miami Grand Prix: Top 10 Finishers: Isack Hadjar
KXF1TOP10-MIAGP26-HAD
Miami Grand Prix: Podium Finishers: Andrea Kimi Antonelli
KXF1RACEPODIUM-MIAGP26-ANT
Miami Grand Prix: Podium Finishers: George Russell
KXF1RACEPODIUM-MIAGP26-RUS
Miami Grand Prix: Fastest Lap: Andrea Kimi Antonelli
KXF1FASTLAP-MIAGP26-ANT
Miami Grand Prix: Podium Finishers: Charles Leclerc
KXF1RACEPODIUM-MIAGP26-LEC
Miami Grand Prix: Fastest Lap: George Russell
KXF1FASTLAP-MIAGP26-RUS
Miami Grand Prix: Top 10 Finishers: Nico Hulkenberg
KXF1TOP10-MIAGP26-HUL
Miami Grand Prix: Fastest Lap: Lando Norris
KXF1FASTLAP-MIAGP26-NOR
Miami Grand Prix: Top 10 Finishers: Franco Colapinto
KXF1TOP10-MIAGP26-COL
Cluster 2
Will the Miami Grand Prix be postponed or canceled due to weather
Analysis
The Miami Grand Prix has an 83% probability that the leader will win, reflecting the highest-priced contract on the market. This represents market participants' best estimate of one driver's likelihood of victory at this race, though significant uncertainty remains given that the runner-up carries 65% probability. Market pricing is driven by recent performance data, team competitiveness, and historical patterns at Miami's circuit characteristics. The upcoming qualifying session and practice sessions will provide real-time information about relative speed and vehicle setup, potentially shifting probabilities as teams reveal their true pace. The race itself on May 4, 2026, will resolve this contract definitively. Current contract distribution shows Max Verstappen leading at 24¢, followed by Andrea Kimi Antonelli at 37¢, indicating meaningful disagreement among market participants about who will finish first.
- ›Max Verstappen holds the highest individual win probability at 24¢, but contracts collectively indicate no single driver dominates; the second-place contract suggests competitive uncertainty
- ›Andrea Kimi Antonelli at 37¢ represents the second-largest probability weight, unusual for a secondary driver, suggesting specific expectations about reliability or competition levels
- ›Trading volume of $154,576 in 24 hours on Verstappen's contract indicates active repricing and substantial market participation
- ›The gap between the leader (83%) and runner-up (65%) suggests the market has identified a clear but not overwhelming favorite outcome
- ›Qualifying and practice data released before the race will directly inform contract repricing as teams' true relative performance becomes measurable
What moved the line
- May 1Top 10 Finishers: Andrea Kimi Antonelli↓71pp86→15¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Top 10 Finishers: Andrea Kimi Antonelli↑40pp15→55¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Top 10 Finishers: Isack Hadjar↓36pp53→17¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Podium Finishers: Max Verstappen↑33pp24→57¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Podium Finishers: George Russell↓25pp58→33¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.