Miami Grand Prix Sprint Race
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
31%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+5pp
13h ago
24h volume
$1.0M
18 contracts
Closes
May 17, 2026
14 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Miami Grand Prix” vs “Will the Miami Grand Prix be postponed or canceled due to weather”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Miami Grand Prix
Miami Grand Prix Winner: Max Verstappen
KXF1RACE-MIAGP26-VER
Miami Grand Prix Winner: Andrea Kimi Antonelli
KXF1RACE-MIAGP26-ANT
Miami Grand Prix Winner: Lando Norris
KXF1RACE-MIAGP26-NOR
Miami Grand Prix Winner: Charles Leclerc
KXF1RACE-MIAGP26-LEC
Miami Grand Prix Winner: George Russell
KXF1RACE-MIAGP26-RUS
Miami Grand Prix: Podium Finishers: Oscar Piastri
KXF1RACEPODIUM-MIAGP26-PIA
Miami Grand Prix: Podium Finishers: Max Verstappen
KXF1RACEPODIUM-MIAGP26-VER
Miami Grand Prix: Top 10 Finishers: Andrea Kimi Antonelli
KXF1TOP10-MIAGP26-ANT
Miami Grand Prix: Podium Finishers: Lewis Hamilton
KXF1RACEPODIUM-MIAGP26-HAM
Miami Grand Prix: Podium Finishers: Andrea Kimi Antonelli
KXF1RACEPODIUM-MIAGP26-ANT
Miami Grand Prix: Podium Finishers: George Russell
KXF1RACEPODIUM-MIAGP26-RUS
Miami Grand Prix: Fastest Lap: Andrea Kimi Antonelli
KXF1FASTLAP-MIAGP26-ANT
Miami Grand Prix: Podium Finishers: Charles Leclerc
KXF1RACEPODIUM-MIAGP26-LEC
Miami Grand Prix: Fastest Lap: George Russell
KXF1FASTLAP-MIAGP26-RUS
Miami Grand Prix: Top 10 Finishers: Esteban Ocon
KXF1TOP10-MIAGP26-OCO
Miami Grand Prix: Fastest Lap: Lando Norris
KXF1FASTLAP-MIAGP26-NOR
Miami Grand Prix: Top 10 Finishers: Franco Colapinto
KXF1TOP10-MIAGP26-COL
Cluster 2
Will the Miami Grand Prix be postponed or canceled due to weather
Analysis
This 26% probability represents the market's assessment that a sprint race will occur at the Miami Grand Prix in 2026. The contracts show Max Verstappen as the favorite winner at 24 cents if a sprint happens, with Andrea Kimi Antonelli as the second choice at 37 cents. Sprint race inclusion depends on Formula 1's calendar decisions and whether Miami retains sprint status for the upcoming season. The primary driver of this probability is the official F1 calendar announcement, which typically occurs months in advance. Key uncertainties include whether F1 continues expanding sprints as a format and Miami's specific designation. The market is pricing in meaningful doubt about sprint confirmation, likely because final calendar details may not yet be publicly confirmed or because recent F1 strategic shifts around sprint proliferation remain uncertain.
- ›F1 has not yet officially announced whether Miami hosts a sprint race in 2026, making calendar confirmation the primary resolution event
- ›Verstappen's 24-cent odds suggest he carries approximately 24-28% implied probability of winning if a sprint occurs, while Antonelli at 37 cents suggests lower confidence in his sprint performance relative to other races
- ›Trading volume is concentrated in the Verstappen contract ($154k 24h), indicating market focus on his championship contention rather than sprint-specific dynamics
- ›Sprint races remain discretionary calendar events; F1 has historically limited them to roughly 6 per season, creating genuine uncertainty about Miami's inclusion
- ›A 26% overall probability suggests the market assigns roughly 65-75% confidence that Miami will host a sprint in 2026, with remaining uncertainty on driver outcomes conditional on sprint confirmation
What moved the line
- May 1Top 10 Finishers: Andrea Kimi Antonelli↓71pp86→15¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Top 10 Finishers: Andrea Kimi Antonelli↑40pp15→55¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Podium Finishers: Max Verstappen↑33pp24→57¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Podium Finishers: George Russell↓25pp58→33¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Top 10 Finishers: Esteban Ocon↓25pp32→7¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.