Fagiano Okayama vs. Avispa Fukuoka
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
29%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$11
20 contracts
Top contract
41¢
$11 · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama” vs “Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama: V-Varen Nagasaki
0xc5b7c9…53a4
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama: Fagiano Okayama
0x63a827…8c8d
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x72e6ac…411d
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x2871c0…c97c
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x39f384…3efc
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x716f77…c36d
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x07a435…b319
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama - More Markets: Fagiano Okayama (-1.5)
0x1b0ea4…e439
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama - More Markets: V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5)
0xa74e60…fec0
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama - More Markets: Fagiano Okayama (-2.5)
0xf65661…1cc3
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama: Draw (V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama)
0xc6a6ba…cf59
Cluster 2
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xd9e96a…3268
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: Kyōto Sanga FC (-2.5)
0xce2952…4178
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: Avispa Fukuoka (-2.5)
0xf35f62…6fe2
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: Kyōto Sanga FC
0xe6b9d5…2783
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: Draw (Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC)
0xdf82b1…7194
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: Avispa Fukuoka
0x805f95…893c
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x35fac1…c35e
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: Kyōto Sanga FC (-1.5)
0xad3d5f…1797
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets: Avispa Fukuoka (-1.5)
0x33b100…116d
What moved the line
- May 3Fagiano Okayama (-2.5)↑4pp28→32¢ · Polymarket
- May 3O/U 4.5↑3pp31→34¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.