FC Cajamarca vs. Sport Boys Association
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 45% across 15 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
45%
15 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$26K
15 contracts
Top contract
69¢
$11K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
13 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will G2 Esports win
Cluster 2
Will Natus Vincere win
Will Natus Vincere win the Natus Vincere vs. G2 Esports League of Legends match?: Natus Vincere
KXLOLGAME-26MAY031315NAVIG2-NAVI
Will Natus Vincere win map 2 in the Natus Vincere vs. G2 Esports match?: Natus Vincere
KXLOLMAP-26MAY031315NAVIG2-2-NAVI
Cluster 3
Will Dragon Ranger Gaming win the Dragon Ranger Gaming vs. Trace Esports Valorant match
Cluster 4
Will Otakar Esports win the UCAM Esports Club vs. Otakar Esports Valorant match
Cluster 5
Will Team Envy win the Team Envy vs. G2 Esports Valorant match
Will Team Envy win the Team Envy vs. G2 Esports Valorant match?: Team Envy
KXVALORANTGAME-26MAY032000NVG2-NV
Cluster 6
Will UNO MILLE win the UNO MILLE vs. Yawara Esports CS2 match
Will UNO MILLE win the UNO MILLE vs. Yawara Esports CS2 match?: UNO MILLE
KXCS2GAME-26MAY031500UNOYAW-UNO
Cluster 7
Will Yawara Esports win the UNO MILLE vs. Yawara Esports CS2 match
Will Yawara Esports win the UNO MILLE vs. Yawara Esports CS2 match?: Yawara Esports
KXCS2GAME-26MAY031500UNOYAW-YAW
Cluster 8
Will JD Gaming win the JD Gaming vs. Top Esports League of Legends match
Will JD Gaming win the JD Gaming vs. Top Esports League of Legends match?: JD Gaming
KXLOLGAME-26MAY060700JDGTES-JDG
Cluster 9
Will Top Esports win the JD Gaming vs. Top Esports League of Legends match
Cluster 10
Will VfB eSports win the G2 NORD vs. VfB eSports League of Legends match
Will VfB eSports win the G2 NORD vs. VfB eSports League of Legends match?: VfB eSports
KXLOLGAME-26MAY061100G2NVFB-VFB
Cluster 11
Will T1 Academy win the Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs. T1 Academy League of Legends match
Cluster 12
Will Hanwha Life Esports Challengers win the Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs. T1 Academy League of Legends match
Cluster 13
Will Alex vs. ARod win the 47th Annual Sports Emmy Awards for Outstanding Sports Documentary Series
Analysis
This probability reflects the market's expectation that Sport Boys Association will win their upcoming match against FC Cajamarca in Peruvian football. The 23 percentage point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests traders disagree on how to weigh available information about team form, head-to-head records, or recent performance metrics. Resolution depends on the match outcome, which will be determined by actual play. Factors influencing the current 37% probability include relative league standing, recent match results, injury status, and home-field advantage. The match result will be verified through official league records once completed, eliminating uncertainty entirely.
- ›Relative league positions and current-season point totals for both clubs as of late April 2026
- ›Head-to-head historical performance between FC Cajamarca and Sport Boys Association in recent seasons
- ›Recent form: goals scored/conceded and results in the last 5-10 matches for each team
- ›Home-field advantage if the match is being played at a specific venue
- ›Player availability and confirmed injuries or suspensions affecting either squad
What moved the line
- May 3T1 Academy↑47pp30→77¢ · Kalshi
- May 3UNO MILLE↓23pp56→33¢ · Kalshi
- May 2T1 Academy↑15pp15→30¢ · Kalshi
- May 2G2 Esports↑13pp67→80¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Otakar Esports↑8pp5→13¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 12 min ago.