FC Cajamarca vs. Sport Boys Association - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 45% across 16 contracts. Kalshi at 45%, Polymarket at 44%.
Implied probability
Kalshi
45%
12 contracts
Polymarket
44%
4 contracts
Cross-venue gap
1pp
tight
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$26K
16 contracts
Top contract
69¢
$11K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
14 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Will G2 Esports win” vs “FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will G2 Esports win
Cluster 2
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt
Cluster 3
Will Dragon Ranger Gaming win the Dragon Ranger Gaming vs. Trace Esports Valorant match
Cluster 4
Will Natus Vincere win the Natus Vincere vs. G2 Esports League of Legends match
Cluster 5
Will Otakar Esports win the UCAM Esports Club vs. Otakar Esports Valorant match
Cluster 6
Will Team Envy win the Team Envy vs. G2 Esports Valorant match
Will Team Envy win the Team Envy vs. G2 Esports Valorant match?: Team Envy
KXVALORANTGAME-26MAY032000NVG2-NV
Cluster 7
Will UNO MILLE win the UNO MILLE vs. Yawara Esports CS2 match
Will UNO MILLE win the UNO MILLE vs. Yawara Esports CS2 match?: UNO MILLE
KXCS2GAME-26MAY031500UNOYAW-UNO
Cluster 8
Will JD Gaming win the JD Gaming vs. Top Esports League of Legends match
Will JD Gaming win the JD Gaming vs. Top Esports League of Legends match?: JD Gaming
KXLOLGAME-26MAY060700JDGTES-JDG
Cluster 9
Will Top Esports win the JD Gaming vs. Top Esports League of Legends match
Cluster 10
Will VfB eSports win the G2 NORD vs. VfB eSports League of Legends match
Will VfB eSports win the G2 NORD vs. VfB eSports League of Legends match?: VfB eSports
KXLOLGAME-26MAY061100G2NVFB-VFB
Cluster 11
Will T1 Academy win the Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs. T1 Academy League of Legends match
Cluster 12
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x92fa6c…9a3a
Cluster 13
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x5d58f6…ee3d
Cluster 14
Will Alex vs. ARod win the 47th Annual Sports Emmy Awards for Outstanding Sports Documentary Series
Analysis
This probability represents the market's assessment that additional wagering markets will be created for the FC Cajamarca vs. Sport Boys Association match. At 33%, traders see moderate likelihood of expanded market offerings beyond what currently exists. The probability reflects typical patterns for Peruvian football matches: major platform operators sometimes add supplementary markets (spreads, totals, player props) when initial volume justifies the infrastructure investment, while lower-profile matchups often remain limited to basic match outcomes. The primary drivers are the initial trading volume on existing markets and whether either team carries sufficient betting interest to warrant deeper market coverage. Key resolution depends on platform operators' decisions during the pre-match period, typically 24-48 hours before kickoff. Divergence between Polymarket (33%) and Kalshi (32%) suggests minor disagreement, though the minimal gap indicates broad consensus around the mid-range probability.
- ›Current 24-hour trading volume across primary markets will determine if platforms view the match as sufficiently liquid to justify additional market creation
- ›The tier and historical trading activity of both FC Cajamarca and Sport Boys Association in their respective leagues influences operator investment decisions
- ›Platform coverage patterns show Peruvian football typically receives limited market expansion unless one team has outsized regional or betting community interest
- ›Time-to-kickoff timing and competing sporting events on the match date affect whether operators allocate resources to supplementary markets
- ›Historical precedent: similar-tier Peruvian football matches create expanded markets in approximately 30-35% of cases based on platform data
What moved the line
- May 3T1 Academy↑47pp30→77¢ · Kalshi
- May 3UNO MILLE↓23pp56→33¢ · Kalshi
- May 2T1 Academy↑15pp15→30¢ · Kalshi
- May 2G2 Esports↑13pp67→80¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Otakar Esports↑8pp5→13¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 13 min ago.