FC Cajamarca vs. Sport Boys Association - More Markets: FC Cajamarca (-1.5)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 37% across 15 contracts. Kalshi at 43%, Polymarket at 26% — a 17pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
43%
10 contracts
Polymarket
26%
5 contracts
Cross-venue gap
17pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$30K
15 contracts
Top contract
69¢
$11K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 43¢ · Polymarket 26¢ · 17pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (26¢, 5 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (43¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
14 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 30% of their title tokens — “Will G2 Esports win” vs “Will Dragon Ranger Gaming win the Dragon Ranger Gaming vs. Trace Esports Valorant match”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will G2 Esports win
Cluster 2
Will Dragon Ranger Gaming win the Dragon Ranger Gaming vs. Trace Esports Valorant match
Cluster 3
Will Trace Esports win the Dragon Ranger Gaming vs. Trace Esports Valorant match
Cluster 4
Will Natus Vincere win the Natus Vincere vs. G2 Esports League of Legends match
Cluster 5
Will Team Envy win the Team Envy vs. G2 Esports Valorant match
Will Team Envy win the Team Envy vs. G2 Esports Valorant match?: Team Envy
KXVALORANTGAME-26MAY032000NVG2-NV
Cluster 6
Will UNO MILLE win the UNO MILLE vs. Yawara Esports CS2 match
Will UNO MILLE win the UNO MILLE vs. Yawara Esports CS2 match?: UNO MILLE
KXCS2GAME-26MAY031500UNOYAW-UNO
Cluster 7
FC Midtjylland vs. Viborg FF - More Markets: Viborg FF
FC Midtjylland vs. Viborg FF - More Markets: Viborg FF (-2.5)
0x712d79…37f9
Cluster 8
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets: CS Cristal
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets: CS Cristal (-2.5)
0xd13fc2…30fc
Cluster 9
CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad - More Markets: Club Libertad
CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad - More Markets: Club Libertad (-2.5)
0x361624…8104
Cluster 10
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5)
0x879d11…150c
Cluster 11
Will JD Gaming win the JD Gaming vs. Top Esports League of Legends match
Will JD Gaming win the JD Gaming vs. Top Esports League of Legends match?: JD Gaming
KXLOLGAME-26MAY060700JDGTES-JDG
Cluster 12
Will Top Esports win the JD Gaming vs. Top Esports League of Legends match
Cluster 13
Will VfB eSports win the G2 NORD vs. VfB eSports League of Legends match
Will VfB eSports win the G2 NORD vs. VfB eSports League of Legends match?: VfB eSports
KXLOLGAME-26MAY061100G2NVFB-VFB
Cluster 14
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x92fa6c…9a3a
Analysis
A 33% probability means markets estimate roughly a one-in-three chance that FC Cajamarca wins by 2 or more goals against Sport Boys Association. This reflects moderate skepticism about a decisive home victory, likely driven by Sport Boys' defensive capability and historical head-to-head performance. The main catalyst is the match itself, which will definitively resolve whether Cajamarca achieves the required margin. Upward pressure on this probability would come from pre-match team news favoring Cajamarca (injuries to Sport Boys' key defenders, lineup changes), while downward pressure would come from evidence of Cajamarca's attacking struggles or Sport Boys' recent strong form. The current 1-percentage-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests modest disagreement across venues, though the 18 contracts on Polymarket provide substantially more liquidity than the 2 on Kalshi.
- ›FC Cajamarca's home-field record and goal-scoring average in recent matches versus Sport Boys' away defensive performance
- ›Sport Boys Association's injury status and recent lineup changes heading into match day
- ›Historical head-to-head results between these teams, particularly margin-of-victory patterns
- ›Current league standings and playoff implications that might affect team motivation or tactical approach
- ›Polymarket's 18-contract depth versus Kalshi's 2 contracts, indicating concentration risk in price discovery
What moved the line
- May 3UNO MILLE↓23pp56→33¢ · Kalshi
- May 2G2 Esports↑13pp67→80¢ · Kalshi
- May 3G2 Esports↑5pp63→68¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Club Libertad (-2.5)↓5pp11→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 1G2 Esports↑4pp59→63¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.