FC Cincinnati vs. New York Red Bulls - More Markets: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 47% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 48%, Polymarket at 36% — a 12pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
48%
19 contracts
Polymarket
36%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
12pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$28K
20 contracts
Top contract
54¢
$11K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 48¢ · Polymarket 36¢ · 12pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (36¢, 1 contract) and sell on Kalshi (48¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
6 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 29% of their title tokens — “New York M vs Los Angeles A Total Runs” vs “Will New York”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
New York M vs Los Angeles A Total Runs
New York M vs Los Angeles A Total Runs?: Over 8.5 runs scored
KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031607NYMLAA-9
New York M vs Los Angeles A Total Runs?: Over 10.5 runs scored
KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031607NYMLAA-11
New York M vs Los Angeles A Total Runs?: Over 12.5 runs scored
KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031607NYMLAA-13
New York M vs Los Angeles A Total Runs?: Over 6.5 runs scored
KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031607NYMLAA-7
New York M vs Los Angeles A Total Runs?: Over 9.5 runs scored
KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031607NYMLAA-10
New York M vs Los Angeles A Total Runs?: Over 7.5 runs scored
KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031607NYMLAA-8
New York M vs Los Angeles A Total Runs?: Over 11.5 runs scored
KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031607NYMLAA-12
Cluster 2
Will New York
Will New York Y score over 7.5 runs?: New York Y over 7.5 runs scored
KXMLBTEAMTOTAL-26MAY031335BALNYY-NYY8
Will New York Y score over 4.5 runs?: New York Y over 4.5 runs scored
KXMLBTEAMTOTAL-26MAY031335BALNYY-NYY5
Will New York Y score over 5.5 runs?: New York Y over 5.5 runs scored
KXMLBTEAMTOTAL-26MAY031335BALNYY-NYY6
Will New York M score over 5.5 runs?: New York M over 5.5 runs scored
KXMLBTEAMTOTAL-26MAY031607NYMLAA-NYM6
Will New York M score over 3.5 runs?: New York M over 3.5 runs scored
KXMLBTEAMTOTAL-26MAY031607NYMLAA-NYM4
Cluster 3
Baltimore vs New York Y Total Runs
Baltimore vs New York Y Total Runs?: Over 8.5 runs scored
KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031335BALNYY-9
Baltimore vs New York Y Total Runs?: Over 4.5 runs scored
KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031335BALNYY-5
Baltimore vs New York Y Total Runs?: Over 7.5 runs scored
KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031335BALNYY-8
Baltimore vs New York Y Total Runs?: Over 10.5 runs scored
KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031335BALNYY-11
Cluster 4
DC United at New York City: Totals: Over
Cluster 5
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: New York
KXREDISTRICTING-26-NY
Cluster 6
Which club will Cristiano Ronaldo play for next
Which club will Cristiano Ronaldo play for next?: New York Red Bulls
0x2047d9…7631
What moved the line
- May 3New York Y over 5.5 runs scored↑29pp9→38¢ · Kalshi
- May 3New York Y over 4.5 runs scored↑27pp26→53¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 29New York Red Bulls↑22pp26→48¢ · Polymarket
- May 3New York Y over 7.5 runs scored↑12pp6→18¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Over 9.5 runs scored↑6pp37→43¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 13 min ago.