SimpleFunctions
20 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 2 min ago

FC Dallas vs. Minnesota United FC - More Markets

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 35% across 20 Polymarket contracts.

Implied probability

35%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

not bound

Polymarket

35%

20 contracts

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$40

20 contracts

Top contract

24¢

$29 · Polymarket

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 38% (3 days, 3 points)Aggregate: 38% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 20 contracts · 3d

Bracket families

4 clusters across 20 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

FC Imabari vs. Kōchi United SC - More Markets

6 contracts$0

Cluster 2

Fujieda MYFC vs. Fukushima United FC - More Markets

6 contracts$0

Cluster 3

Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets

5 contracts$0

Cluster 4

Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets

3 contracts$40

What moved the line

  • May 2Incheon United FC (-1.5)18pp3517¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Incheon United FC (-2.5)17pp3518¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Incheon United FC (-1.5)8pp1725¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Kōchi United SC (-1.5)5pp3338¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Fukushima United FC (-1.5)5pp3338¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.