FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC
Leader sits at 43% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 36%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
FC Gifu
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
36¢
Matsumoto Yamaga FC
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC
Analysis
This represents a 39% probability that FC Gifu will win their match against Matsumoto Yamaga FC, based on pricing from prediction markets. The current assessment reflects competitive positioning between two J2 League teams, with the favorite (Matsumoto) implied at roughly 37% and other outcomes capturing draws or remaining uncertainty. The probability would shift if recent team form, injury updates, or head-to-head records become available closer to match day. The match itself serves as the primary resolution catalyst, determining which team claims victory. Related market contracts suggest modest goal expectations (28¢ on over 4.5 total goals) and a 47¢ price on both teams scoring, indicating traders expect a relatively tight, defensive contest rather than a high-scoring affair.
- ›FC Gifu's home/away record and recent win percentage in J2 League fixtures
- ›Matsumoto Yamaga FC's current league position and goal differential relative to Gifu
- ›Head-to-head historical performance between these teams in prior seasons
- ›Injury or suspension status of key attacking or defensive players for either side
- ›Market depth and trading volume on these contracts remains minimal ($0 24h volume), suggesting limited consensus and potential for repricing on new information
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.