Who will Trump name in April
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 39% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 36%, Polymarket at 42% — a 6pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
36%
11 contracts
Polymarket
42%
9 contracts
Cross-venue gap
6pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$65K
20 contracts
Top contract
62¢
$17K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 36¢ · Polymarket 42¢ · 6pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (36¢, 11 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (42¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
7 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Who will
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?: Todd Blanche
KXNEXTAG-29-TBLA
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?: Ron DeSantis
KXNEXTAG-29-RDES
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?: Lee Zeldin
KXNEXTAG-29-LZEL
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?: Jeanine Pirro
KXNEXTAG-29-JPIR
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?: Harmeet Dhillon
KXNEXTAG-29-HDHI
Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026?: Donald Trump
KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-DJT
Cluster 2
Who will Trump
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?: Xi Jinping
0x3d6148…b987
Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General?: Todd Blanche
0x788c96…c329
Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General?: Ron DeSantis
0xf14b53…4d69
Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General?: No Announcement by June 30
0xc3fdb5…aa63
Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General?: Lee Zeldin
0x9157c8…e33a
Cluster 3
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?: Kash Patel
0xde2be5…badf
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?: Howard Lutnick
0x6eb866…8483
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?: Karoline Leavitt
0x1960b1…bcb6
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?: Susie Wiles
0xa8ce9e…90be
Cluster 4
Will Trump say "Who are you with / Where are you from" before
Will Trump say "Who are you with / Where are you from" before May 4, 2026?: Who are you with / Where are you from
KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY04-WHO
Will Trump say "Who are you with / Where are you from" before Jun 1, 2026?: Who are you with / Where are you from
KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26JUN01-WHO
Cluster 5
Who will win the next presidential election
Who will win the next presidential election?: Donald J. Trump
KXPRESPERSON-28-DTRU
Cluster 6
Will Kevin Hart be the primary target of the roast and whose name appears in the official title or promotional materials of the roast special at the next Netflix-produced live or recorded celebrity roast special released on Netflix
Will Kevin Hart be the primary target of the roast and whose name appears in the official title or promotional materials of the roast special at the next Netflix-produced live or recorded celebrity roast special released on Netflix?: Kevin Hart
KXROASTSUBJECT-30JAN01-KEV
Cluster 7
Who will Time name as Person of the Decade
Who will Time name as Person of the Decade?: Taylor Swift
KXTIMEDECADE20S-30-TAY
What moved the line
- Apr 26Kevin Hart↓16pp95→79¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Todd Blanche↓16pp45→29¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Who are you with / Where are you from↓15pp37→22¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Who are you with / Where are you from↓13pp56→43¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 26Todd Blanche↑12pp40→52¢ · Kalshi
More like this
Other questions in trump.
In trump
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 8 min ago.