Who will Trump name in April
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
31%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$16K
5 contracts
Closes
Jan 31, 2030
1317 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 29% of their title tokens — “Who will” vs “Who will Time name as Person of the Decade”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Who will
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?: Todd Blanche
KXNEXTAG-29-TBLA
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?: Lee Zeldin
KXNEXTAG-29-LZEL
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?: Ron DeSantis
KXNEXTAG-29-RDES
Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026?: Donald Trump
KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-DJT
Cluster 2
Who will Time name as Person of the Decade
Who will Time name as Person of the Decade?: Taylor Swift
KXTIMEDECADE20S-30-TAY
Analysis
This 27% probability reflects the likelihood that Trump will make a significant appointment in April 2026. The level is primarily driven by expectations around the Attorney General position, where Todd Blanche currently has the highest individual probability at 72 cents. Several other contracts reflect different high-level appointments and events, though they show lower consensus. The main factors pushing this probability would be Trump's stated timeline for personnel decisions and any public announcements about when key positions will be filled. The resolution depends on actual appointments being made during April 2026, with the Attorney General role being the most closely watched contract. Market activity has been light on most contracts, suggesting limited trading volume and potentially low confidence in these specific predictions.
- ›Todd Blanche's 72-cent probability as next Attorney General represents the single largest driver of the 27% aggregate, indicating strong market expectation for this specific appointment
- ›Only one contract in the set (Blanche as AG) shows significant trading volume ($8,621 in 24 hours), suggesting most contracts lack liquidity and deeper market conviction
- ›Three alternative AG candidates (DeSantis, Zeldin) carry combined probabilities below 10 cents, indicating relatively low market confidence in competing possibilities
- ›The presence of unrelated contracts (Epstein documents, Taylor Swift as Person of the Decade) in the aggregation raises questions about contract selection methodology
- ›April 2026 deadline is approximately 10 months away, providing substantial time for new information to emerge that could shift appointment probabilities
What moved the line
- Jun 18Donald Trump↓15pp72→57¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Donald Trump↑3pp57→60¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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