SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 9 min agoCloses May 6, 2026 · 2d18pp · 9h

FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Markets

Leader sits at 65% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 52%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

65%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 52¢leader 65¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

52¢

O/U 2.5

Spread

13pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

May 6, 2026

2 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 60% on 2026-05-03O/U 2.5: 52% (2 days, 2 points)O/U 2.5: 52% on 2026-05-03Both Teams to Score: 48% (2 days, 2 points)Both Teams to Score: 48% on 2026-05-03
O/U 1.560¢O/U 2.552¢Both Teams to Score48¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This represents traders' estimate that both FC Gifu and Matsumoto Yamaga FC will each score at least one goal in their upcoming match. At 47%, this outcome is priced as more likely than not, suggesting moderate confidence in a competitive, open game rather than a low-scoring or one-sided result. The probability reflects expectations about both teams' offensive capability and defensive vulnerabilities. An increase would follow if recent form data shows both squads scoring consistently; a decrease would occur if injury reports or lineup changes suggest either team's attacking options are compromised. The match itself will resolve all uncertainty once played, making team news and recent performance trends the primary drivers of any shifts in the coming days.

  • Recent goal-scoring records for both FC Gifu and Matsumoto Yamaga FC in their last 5–10 matches
  • Current injury status or roster changes affecting either team's primary strikers or defensive starters
  • Head-to-head scoring patterns in previous matchups between these two clubs
  • League position and offensive/defensive efficiency rankings as of early May 2026
  • Scheduled match date and any weather or venue factors that historically affect scoring volume in this competition

What moved the line

  • May 3Matsumoto Yamaga FC (-1.5)4pp3337¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3FC Gifu (-2.5)4pp3236¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3FC Gifu (-1.5)3pp3942¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in trump

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Other questions in trump.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.