FC Juárez vs. Atlético San Luis
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 33%, Polymarket at 29% — a 4pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
2 contracts
Polymarket
29%
18 contracts
Cross-venue gap
4pp
modest gap
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$543
20 contracts
Top contract
39¢
$321 · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 33¢ · Polymarket 29¢ · 4pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (29¢, 18 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (33¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
8 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets” vs “Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: SC Corinthians Paulista (-1.5)
0x71f745…44e7
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x65835d…d417
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x13712f…25b6
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: SC Corinthians Paulista (-2.5)
0xd92e3c…28a1
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xd128a4…33d7
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x5735da…8821
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: Independiente Santa Fe (-1.5)
0x559461…3557
Cluster 2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC
Cluster 3
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC
Cluster 4
Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC - More Markets
Cluster 5
CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets
Cluster 6
Will Robelis Despaigne win the Junior Dos Santos vs. Robelis Despaigne UFC fight in Round 1: Robelis Despaigne to win in Round 1
Cluster 7
Will either competitor win the Junior Dos Santos vs. Robelis Despaigne fight by decision or the fight result in a draw/no contest: Decision / Draw / No Contest
Cluster 8
Kataller Toyama vs. Kamatamare Sanuki - More Markets: Kataller Toyama
Kataller Toyama vs. Kamatamare Sanuki - More Markets: Kataller Toyama (-1.5)
0xa18b4a…9f97
What moved the line
- May 3Robelis Despaigne to win in Round 1↓21pp42→21¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Draw (Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC)↓9pp38→29¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Both Teams to Score↓4pp58→54¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Kataller Toyama (-1.5)↑3pp37→40¢ · Polymarket
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 23 min ago.