FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos
Leader sits at 54% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 26%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
FC Machida Zelvia
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
26¢
Draw (FC Machida Zelvia vs.
Spread
28pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: FC Machida Zelvia
0xfadb01…63e0
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: Yokohama F·Marinos
0x35d63d…8c83
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: Draw (FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos)
0xe986c1…e0f1
Analysis
This 32% probability reflects market expectations that Yokohama F·Marinos will win the upcoming match against FC Machida Zelvia. The market shows a narrow spread between top outcomes, indicating genuine uncertainty rather than a dominant favorite. Yokohama's current form, recent head-to-head results, and home/away status would be primary drivers of movement in either direction. The probability would shift upward if Yokohama demonstrates consistent offensive performance or if Machida enters the match with key injuries. The match itself serves as the definitive resolution event—there is no waiting for delayed announcements or interpretive rulings. Limited trading volume (zero 24-hour volume on Polymarket) suggests thin liquidity, meaning new information or late-game bets could create price movement that doesn't necessarily reflect underlying fundamentals.
- ›Yokohama F·Marinos' goal differential and recent match outcomes in the current season compared to Machida Zelvia's defensive record
- ›Availability of key attacking and defensive players for both teams heading into match day, including injury reports released closer to kickoff
- ›Head-to-head historical performance between these specific clubs in recent seasons
- ›Yokohama's home/away record and whether the match is played at their home ground or neutral venue
- ›Trading volume on prediction markets remains at zero in 24 hours, indicating minimal consensus-building or information arbitrage among active traders
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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