FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos - More Markets
Leader sits at 77% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 49%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
49¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
28pp
contested
24h volume
$20
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos - More Markets
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x59499b…4dcd
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos - More Markets: Yokohama F·Marinos (-2.5)
0x91f635…61e3
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x3f4aee…054d
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x2d1ff3…fa68
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x370751…ca9a
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x55c4f8…292a
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos - More Markets: FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5)
0xbe0413…65c7
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos - More Markets: Yokohama F·Marinos (-1.5)
0x19e3cd…8204
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos - More Markets: FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5)
0xeace31…0b5c
Analysis
This market is pricing a 53% probability that FC Machida Zelvia will beat Yokohama F·Marinos in an upcoming match. The probability reflects Yokohama's status as favorites (reflected in the 34% runner-up position for a draw or Machida win), likely based on recent form, league standings, or head-to-head history. Resolution depends entirely on the match result whenever it is scheduled. With zero trading volume in the past 24 hours across related contracts, the market shows limited recent activity, suggesting either low trader interest or a fixture date further in the future. The gap between the leading contract (53%) and runner-up (34%) indicates meaningful disagreement about the outcome, though the thin liquidity limits confidence in either position. Key moving factors would include team roster changes, injury updates, or shifts in current league performance between now and kickoff.
- ›Yokohama F·Marinos implied win probability is approximately 13% based on runner-up position at 34%, indicating Machida is priced as the favorite
- ›Zero 24-hour trading volume suggests minimal recent market activity or delayed fixture scheduling
- ›Related markets show Yokohama favored in spread betting (Yokohama -1.5 at 33¢), creating potential inconsistency with the 53% head-to-head probability
- ›The 19-percentage-point gap between leader (53%) and runner-up (34%) indicates substantial disagreement among traders
- ›Match outcome is entirely dependent on in-game performance with no intervening data releases or events
What moved the line
- May 3Yokohama F·Marinos (-2.5)↑3pp34→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 3FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5)↑3pp32→35¢ · Polymarket
- May 3FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5)↑3pp32→35¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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