SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 12 min agoCloses May 4, 2026 · 0d49pp · 12h

FC Midtjylland vs. Viborg FF - More Markets

Leader sits at 84% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 63%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

84%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 63¢leader 84¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

63¢

O/U 2.5

Spread

21pp

contested

24h volume

$382

thin orderbook

Closes

May 4, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 83% (3 days, 2 points)O/U 1.5: 83% on 2026-05-02O/U 2.5: 62% (3 days, 2 points)O/U 2.5: 62% on 2026-05-02Both Teams to Score: 60% (3 days, 3 points)Both Teams to Score: 60% on 2026-05-03
O/U 1.583¢O/U 2.562¢Both Teams to Score60¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market reflects a 35% probability that Viborg FF covers a -2.5 point spread against FC Midtjylland in an upcoming match. The probability is derived from 20 Polymarket contracts with relatively light trading volume ($306 in 24-hour activity), suggesting moderate interest but limited market depth. The spread implies Viborg is favored by approximately 2.5 goals, and the 35% probability indicates the market assesses roughly a one-in-three chance Viborg wins by more than this margin. Resolution depends on the final match result, which will occur on the scheduled fixture date. Key drivers include current team form, historical head-to-head records, injury status of key players, and home/away advantage. Shifts in the probability would likely reflect updated information about team composition or recent performance data prior to kickoff.

  • Viborg FF's recent win-loss record and goal differential in their last 5-10 matches compared to FC Midtjylland's performance over the same period
  • Historical head-to-head results between the two teams, including goal-scoring patterns and whether either team consistently covers large spreads
  • Confirmed injury reports or roster changes for key offensive or defensive players on either squad before the match date
  • Home/away status and venue characteristics, as teams often perform differently with field advantage
  • Trading volume and contract liquidity ($306 24h volume suggests limited market participation, which may indicate uncertainty about whether the 35% reflects true consensus

What moved the line

  • May 2Viborg FF (-1.5)4pp139¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Viborg FF (-2.5)3pp85¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3FC Midtjylland (-2.5)3pp1518¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 12 min ago.