FC Midtjylland vs. Viborg FF - More Markets
Leader sits at 84% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 63%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
63¢
O/U 2.5
Spread
21pp
contested
24h volume
$382
thin orderbook
Closes
May 4, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
FC Midtjylland vs. Viborg FF - More Markets
FC Midtjylland vs. Viborg FF - More Markets: Viborg FF (-2.5)
0x712d79…37f9
FC Midtjylland vs. Viborg FF - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xa28be5…acce
FC Midtjylland vs. Viborg FF - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x43aeb7…9d66
FC Midtjylland vs. Viborg FF - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xbd46d7…ea7e
FC Midtjylland vs. Viborg FF - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x043502…f522
FC Midtjylland vs. Viborg FF - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x690bc0…5977
FC Midtjylland vs. Viborg FF - More Markets: FC Midtjylland (-2.5)
0xf45bbf…e4b4
FC Midtjylland vs. Viborg FF - More Markets: Viborg FF (-1.5)
0xa24288…ad69
FC Midtjylland vs. Viborg FF - More Markets: FC Midtjylland (-1.5)
0xbb6d71…349d
Analysis
This market reflects a 35% probability that Viborg FF covers a -2.5 point spread against FC Midtjylland in an upcoming match. The probability is derived from 20 Polymarket contracts with relatively light trading volume ($306 in 24-hour activity), suggesting moderate interest but limited market depth. The spread implies Viborg is favored by approximately 2.5 goals, and the 35% probability indicates the market assesses roughly a one-in-three chance Viborg wins by more than this margin. Resolution depends on the final match result, which will occur on the scheduled fixture date. Key drivers include current team form, historical head-to-head records, injury status of key players, and home/away advantage. Shifts in the probability would likely reflect updated information about team composition or recent performance data prior to kickoff.
- ›Viborg FF's recent win-loss record and goal differential in their last 5-10 matches compared to FC Midtjylland's performance over the same period
- ›Historical head-to-head results between the two teams, including goal-scoring patterns and whether either team consistently covers large spreads
- ›Confirmed injury reports or roster changes for key offensive or defensive players on either squad before the match date
- ›Home/away status and venue characteristics, as teams often perform differently with field advantage
- ›Trading volume and contract liquidity ($306 24h volume suggests limited market participation, which may indicate uncertainty about whether the 35% reflects true consensus
What moved the line
- May 2Viborg FF (-1.5)↓4pp13→9¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Viborg FF (-2.5)↓3pp8→5¢ · Polymarket
- May 3FC Midtjylland (-2.5)↑3pp15→18¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 12 min ago.