FC Mito Holly Hock vs. FC Machida Zelvia - More Markets: FC Mito Holly Hock (-1.5)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 34% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
34%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
20 contracts
Closes
Jun 8, 2026
35 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock” vs “FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xd385a3…17a7
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x0020fd…fde4
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x9a04eb…c058
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: Draw (Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock)
0x701ae4…dfa5
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: Kashima Antlers
0xda16f5…3b65
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x081084…5e13
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets: Kashima Antlers (-2.5)
0x6b096c…3965
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets: FC Mito Holly Hock (-1.5)
0x016905…b20d
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets: FC Mito Holly Hock (-2.5)
0x317f8e…e834
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets: Kashima Antlers (-1.5)
0xe7a530…9059
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x2f00d8…2029
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: FC Mito Holly Hock
0x7c2edc…941e
Cluster 2
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos - More Markets: FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5)
0xeace31…0b5c
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos - More Markets: FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5)
0xbe0413…65c7
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x3f4aee…054d
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x59499b…4dcd
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: Yokohama F·Marinos
0x35d63d…8c83
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos - More Markets: Yokohama F·Marinos (-1.5)
0x19e3cd…8204
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x55c4f8…292a
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: FC Machida Zelvia
0xfadb01…63e0
Analysis
This market reflects a 31% probability that FC Mito Holly Hock will win by more than 1.5 goals against FC Machida Zelvia. The low probability suggests bookmakers and traders assess Mito Holly Hock as unlikely to achieve a large margin of victory, despite the mixed signals from related markets showing roughly 24-46% implied probabilities for outright Mito Holly Hock wins. The current level reflects that close matches or Machida Zelvia victories are considered more likely outcomes. The resolution depends on the match result, which will occur on the scheduled date. Movement in this market would depend on team form leading up to kickoff, injury reports, and historical head-to-head performance in this specific spread range.
- ›Outright Mito Holly Hock win probability is priced around 24%, making a 1.5+ goal margin victory a subset requiring both victory and significant goal differential
- ›Related over/under 2.5 goals contract at 48¢ suggests markets expect this to be a relatively low-scoring match, constraining large margin outcomes
- ›Machida Zelvia win probability is priced around 46%, indicating the favorite designation; a win of any margin by Zelvia would eliminate the -1.5 Mito Holly Hock outcome
- ›No active trading volume on the -2.5 Mito Holly Hock contract (0 vol) and minimal volume on most related markets suggests limited liquidity and possible sharp disagreement on precise probabilities
- ›The 2 percentage point spread between Kalshi (29%) and Polymarket (31%) is modest, indicating general market consensus despite different contract structures
What moved the line
- May 3Kashima Antlers (-2.5)↑4pp32→36¢ · Polymarket
- May 3FC Mito Holly Hock (-2.5)↑3pp34→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 3FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5)↑3pp32→35¢ · Polymarket
- May 3FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5)↑3pp32→35¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.